Are experts overconfident? Some research finds experts are plagued by overconfidence whereas others conclude that they are underconfident. We reviewed the literature, taking an interdisciplinary approach, to answer this question. In doing so, we assessed whether there were theoretical differences in how overconfidence and expertise were conceptualized across the literature. For overconfidence, there are three distinct conceptualizations with a fourth captured by economic models. People can be overconfident because they forecast a narrow range of possibilities that the truth frequently falls outside of (i.e. overprecision), overrate their judgments as correct (i.e. overestimation), or overbelieve they outperform their peers (i.e. overplacement). In economic models, overconfidence is at times assessed by the likelihood of engaging in unwise behavior and making inaccurate predictions. Likewise, there are divergent definitions of expertise. People can be identified as experts because of their experience (i.e. time on task), because of enhanced performance on knowledge tests, or because of their job title or professional degree. These conceptual and theoretical inconsistencies are crucial in answering whether experts are overconfident. For overprecision, experts are overprecise across all theoretical definitions of expertise. However, this consistency is likely because overprecision is so robust across people regardless of whether they are experts. For overestimation, we found experts of experience and experts of title typically overestimated, with mixed results for the experts of knowledge. Studies of overplacement are limited, often defining experts via knowledge, but find that they tend to underplace their abilities. Last, when overconfidence is assessed via economic models, experts display overconfidence.

专家是否过于自信？一些研究发现专家受到过度自信的困扰，而另一些研究则得出结论认为他们缺乏自信。我们回顾了文献，采用跨学科的方法来回答这个问题。在此过程中，我们评估了文献中过度自信和专业知识的概念化是否存在理论上的差异。对于过度自信，存在三种不同的概念，其中第四种是由经济模型捕获的。人们可能会过度自信，因为他们预测的可能性范围很窄，而事实往往超出了事实范围（即过度精确），高估自己的判断是正确的（即高估），或者过度相信自己优于同龄人（即过度定位）。在经济模型中，过度自信有时是通过做出不明智行为和做出不准确预测的可能性来评估的。同样，对于专业知识也有不同的定义。人们可以因为他们的经验（即完成任务的时间）、因为在知识测试中表现的增强、或者因为他们的职称或专业学位而被认定为专家。这些概念和理论的不一致对于回答专家是否过度自信至关重要。对于过度精确性，专家们对专业知识的所有理论定义都过于精确。然而，这种一致性很可能是因为无论人们是否是专家，过度精确都非常严重。对于高估，我们发现经验专家和头衔专家通常被高估，而知识专家的结果好坏参半。对过度安置的研究很有限，通常通过知识来定义专家，但发现他们往往低估了自己的能力。最后，当通过经济模型评估过度自信时，专家会表现出过度自信。