Climate Dynamics ( IF 3.8 ) Pub Date : 2023-12-01 , DOI: 10.1007/s00382-023-07016-x Zhinan Shao , Hai Wang , Yu-Fan Geng , Chenrui Diao , Yangyang Xu , Xiao-Tong Zheng
Anthropogenic aerosols (AA) induce pronounced East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) changes since the industrial revolution. However, the regional contribution from different AA emission sources is hard to quantify due to AA’s heterogeneous spatial distribution and the nonmonotonic trend at decadal time scale. Using coupled climate models from Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) and Community Earth System Model 1 (CESM1) large ensemble simulations, we investigate EASM responses between 1950–1980 and 1980–2010, to understand how the remote influence of changes in the AA emissions from Europe modulates the EASM at decadal time scale. AA emissions from Europe increased early in the latter half of the twentieth century and then decreased rapidly after the 1980s. During 1950–1980, the increase of AA emissions from Europe, together with the localized increase of AA emissions from East Asia, weakens the EASM by generating the tropospheric cooling and shifting the East Asian subtropical jet equatorward. However, during 1980–2010, the declined AA emissions from Europe generate the tropospheric warming and induce an atmospheric teleconnection pattern that initiate at the heating anomaly and propagate downstream to northeast Asia following the westerly jet, leading to an enhanced EASM. This enhancement due to the remote influence of declined AA emissions from Europe explains why after the 1980s, despite the localized increase of AA emissions from East Asia, coupled climate models results show that the EASM is intensified by the anomalous southerlies and the precipitation increase in Northeast Asia. Our results imply that at the long-term change view, the local AA emissions dominate the EASM response, while the non-local European AA emissions play a more important role in shaping the decadal EASM changes.
中文翻译:
东亚夏季风对人为气溶胶重新分布的响应:对比1950-1980年和1980-2010年以了解非亚洲强迫的作用
自工业革命以来,人为气溶胶(AA)引起了东亚夏季风(EASM)的明显变化。然而,由于AA的空间分布不均匀且十年时间尺度上的非单调趋势,不同AA排放源的区域贡献很难量化。使用耦合模型比对项目第 6 阶段 (CMIP6) 和社区地球系统模型 1 (CESM1) 大型集合模拟的耦合气候模型,我们研究了 1950-1980 年和 1980-2010 年之间的 EASM 响应,以了解气候变化如何产生远程影响。欧洲的 AA 排放在十年时间尺度上调节 EASM。欧洲的 AA 排放量在 20 世纪下半叶初期有所增加,然后在 20 世纪 80 年代后迅速下降。1950-1980年间,欧洲AA排放量的增加,加上东亚AA排放量的局部增加,产生对流层变冷并使东亚副热带急流向赤道移动,从而削弱了东亚夏季风。然而,在1980年至2010年期间,欧洲AA排放量的下降导致对流层变暖,并诱发大气遥相关模式,该遥相关模式在加热异常处启动,并跟随西风急流向下游传播到东北亚,导致东亚夏季风增强。这种由于欧洲AA排放量下降的远程影响而增强,解释了为什么在20世纪80年代之后,尽管东亚的AA排放量局部增加,但耦合气候模型结果表明,东亚夏季风因异常南风和东北部降水增加而加剧亚洲。我们的结果表明,从长期变化的角度来看,当地的AA排放在EASM响应中占主导地位,而欧洲非本地的AA排放在塑造EASM的十年变化中发挥着更重要的作用。