Varieties of approaches to constructing physical climate storylines: A review,WIREs Climate Change

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Varieties of approaches to constructing physical climate storylines: A review
WIREs Climate Change ( IF 9.4 ) Pub Date : 2023-11-28 , DOI: 10.1002/wcc.869
Marina Baldissera Pacchetti _{1,

2,

3} , Liese Coulter ₄ , Suraje Dessai ₃ , Theodore G. Shepherd ₅ , Jana Sillmann _{6,

7} , Bart Van Den Hurk _{8,

9}

Affiliation

The physical climate storyline (PCS) approach is increasingly recognized by the physical climate research community as a tool to produce and communicate decision-relevant climate risk information. While PCS is generally understood as a single concept, different varieties of the approach are applied according to the aims and purposes of the PCS and the scientists that build them. To unpack this diversity of detail, this article gives an overview of key practices and assumptions of the PCS approach as developed by physical climate scientists, as well as their ties to similar approaches developed by the broader climate risk and adaptation research community. We first examine varieties of PCSs according to the length of the causal chain they explore, and the type of evidence used. We then describe how they incorporate counterfactual elements and the temporal perspective. Finally, we examine how value judgments are implicitly or explicitly included in the aims and construction of PCSs. We conclude the discussion by suggesting that the PCS approach can further mature in the way it incorporates the narrative element, in the way it incorporates value judgments, and in the way that the evidence chosen to build PCSs constrains what is considered plausible.

中文翻译：

构建物理气候故事情节的各种方法：综述

物理气候故事情节 (PCS) 方法越来越受到物理气候研究界的认可，作为生成和传达与决策相关的气候风险信息的工具。虽然 PCS 通常被理解为一个单一的概念，但根据 PCS 以及构建 PCS 的科学家的目的和目的，可以应用不同的方法。为了揭示这种多样性的细节，本文概述了自然气候科学家开发的 PCS 方法的关键实践和假设，以及它们与更广泛的气候风险和适应研究界开发的类似方法的联系。我们首先根据 PCS 探索的因果链的长度以及所使用的证据类型来检查各种 PCS。然后我们描述它们如何结合反事实元素和时间视角。最后，我们研究价值判断是如何隐式或显式地包含在 PCS 的目标和构建中的。我们通过建议 PCS 方法可以在纳入叙事元素的方式、纳入价值判断的方式以及选择用于构建 PCS 的证据限制被认为合理的内容方面进一步成熟来结束讨论。

更新日期：2023-11-28

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