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Spatiotemporal tracking of building materials and their related environmental impacts
Science of the Total Environment ( IF 8.2 ) Pub Date : 2023-11-29 , DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168853 Endrit Hoxha 1 , Nicolas Francart 1 , Buket Tozan 1 , Emilie Brisson Stapel 1 , Srinivasa Raghavendra Bhuvan Gummidi 2 , Harpa Birgisdottir 1
Science of the Total Environment ( IF 8.2 ) Pub Date : 2023-11-29 , DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.168853 Endrit Hoxha 1 , Nicolas Francart 1 , Buket Tozan 1 , Emilie Brisson Stapel 1 , Srinivasa Raghavendra Bhuvan Gummidi 2 , Harpa Birgisdottir 1
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Urban development will increase the demand for new buildings expected to cause significant environmental impacts in the coming decades. Spatiotemporal prediction for new buildings, their typologies, resource quantities and types required for construction, and the associated impacts are crucial to effectively tackle strategies to reduce the related greenhouse gas emissions. Within the context of Denmark, this study establishes a prognosis of expected yearly embedded impacts across the country towards 2050 based on Business as Usual (frozen policy) trends. Through the Holt-Winters method's additive version, the study forecasted the future amount of building types in each Danish municipality. The embedded impacts disaggregated into building types, components, materials, and life cycle stages are calculated from the material intensity coefficients of real projects. Considering a ‘business as usual’ scenario, the prediction shows an increase in demand by 6.5 % for new gross floor areas compared to the number of current buildings constructed in the past years. The GHGs from the upstream processing of materials correspond to 7 % of current consumption-based yearly emissions in Denmark. To strive for sustainable development, the findings of the study help inform stakeholders in the built environment to better correlate the material mechanism ‘supply-demand’ for circularity and where efforts to minimize the impacts should be prioritized.
中文翻译：
建筑材料及其相关环境影响的时空追踪
城市发展将增加对新建筑的需求，预计将在未来几十年内对环境造成重大影响。新建筑的时空预测、其类型、建筑所需的资源数量和类型以及相关影响对于有效解决减少相关温室气体排放的战略至关重要。在丹麦的背景下，本研究根据一切照常（冻结政策）趋势，对 2050 年全国范围内预期的年度嵌入影响进行了预测。通过霍尔特-温特斯方法的加法版本，该研究预测了丹麦每个城市未来的建筑类型数量。根据实际项目的材料强度系数计算分解为建筑类型、构件、材料和生命周期阶段的嵌入影响。考虑到“一切照旧”的情况，预测显示，与过去几年建造的现有建筑数量相比，对新建筑面积的需求将增加 6.5%。材料上游加工产生的温室气体相当于丹麦目前基于消费的年排放量的 7%。为了争取可持续发展，该研究的结果有助于告知建筑环境中的利益相关者，更好地将物质机制“供需”与循环性联系起来，并应优先考虑尽量减少影响的努力。
更新日期：2023-11-29
中文翻译：
建筑材料及其相关环境影响的时空追踪
城市发展将增加对新建筑的需求，预计将在未来几十年内对环境造成重大影响。新建筑的时空预测、其类型、建筑所需的资源数量和类型以及相关影响对于有效解决减少相关温室气体排放的战略至关重要。在丹麦的背景下，本研究根据一切照常（冻结政策）趋势，对 2050 年全国范围内预期的年度嵌入影响进行了预测。通过霍尔特-温特斯方法的加法版本，该研究预测了丹麦每个城市未来的建筑类型数量。根据实际项目的材料强度系数计算分解为建筑类型、构件、材料和生命周期阶段的嵌入影响。考虑到“一切照旧”的情况，预测显示，与过去几年建造的现有建筑数量相比，对新建筑面积的需求将增加 6.5%。材料上游加工产生的温室气体相当于丹麦目前基于消费的年排放量的 7%。为了争取可持续发展，该研究的结果有助于告知建筑环境中的利益相关者，更好地将物质机制“供需”与循环性联系起来，并应优先考虑尽量减少影响的努力。
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