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An underappreciated peculiarity of late-life human mortality kinetics assessed through the lens of a generalization of the Gompertz-Makeham law
Biogerontology ( IF 4.4 ) Pub Date : 2023-11-25 , DOI: 10.1007/s10522-023-10079-2
A Golubev 1
Affiliation  

Much attention in biogerontology is paid to the deceleration of mortality rate increase with age by the end of a species-specific lifespan, e.g. after ca. 90 years in humans. Being analyzed based on the Gompertz law µ(t)=µ0e^γt with its inbuilt linearity of the dependency of lnµ on t, this is commonly assumed to reflect the heterogeneity of populations where the frailer subjects die out earlier thus increasing the proportions of those whose dying out is slower and leading to decreases in the demographic rates of aging. Using Human Mortality Database data related to France, Sweden and Japan in five periods 1920, 1950, 1980, 2018 and 2020 and to the cohorts born in 1920, it is shown by LOESS smoothing of the lnµ-vs-t plots and constructing the first derivatives of the results that the late-life deceleration of the life-table aging rate (LAR) is preceded by an acceleration. It starts at about 65 years and makes LAR at about 85 years to become 30% higher than it was before the acceleration. Thereafter, LAR decreases and reaches the pre-acceleration level at ca. 90 years. This peculiarity cannot be explained by the predominant dying out of frailer subjects at earlier ages. Its plausible explanation may be the acceleration of the biological aging in humans at ages above 65–70 years, which conspicuously coincide with retirement. The decelerated biological aging may therefore contribute to the subsequent late-life LAR deceleration. The biological implications of these findings are discussed in terms of a generalized Gompertz-Makeham law µ(t) = C(t)+µ0e^f(t).



中文翻译:


通过 Gompertz-Makeham 定律的概括来评估人类晚年死亡率动力学的一个未被充分认识的特性



生物老年学中的很多注意力都集中在物种特定寿命结束时(例如大约 10 年后)死亡率随年龄增长的减慢。人类90年。根据 Gompertz 定律µ ( t )= µ 0 e^ γt及其 ln µt依赖性的内在线性进行分析,这通常被认为反映了群体的异质性,其中较弱的受试者较早死亡,从而增加了死亡速度较慢并导致人口老龄化率下降的人口比例。使用与法国、瑞典和日本 1920 年、1950 年、1980 年、2018 年和 2020 年五个时期以及 1920 年出生的队列相关的人类死亡率数据库数据,通过对 ln µ -vs- t图进行 LOESS 平滑并构建结果的一阶导数表明,寿命表老化率 (LAR) 的晚年减速先于加速。它从约 65 年开始,使 LAR 在约 85 年时比加速前高出 30%。此后,LAR 减小并在约 1 时达到加速前水平。 90 年。这种特殊性不能用较早年龄的体弱受试者的主要死亡来解释。其合理的解释可能是,在 65 至 70 岁以上的人类中,生物衰老速度加快,这显然与退休时间重合。因此,生物衰老减慢可能导致晚年 LAR 减慢。这些发现的生物学意义根据广义 Gompertz-Makeham 定律µ ( t ) = C ( t )+ µ 0 e^f( t ) 进行讨论。

更新日期:2023-11-25
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