We propose an account of individual differences in risk preferences called "reference-point theory" for choices between sure things and gambles. Like most descriptive theories of risky choice, preferences depend on two drivers-hedonic sensitivities to change and beliefs about risk. But unlike most theories, these drivers are estimated from judged feelings about choice options and gamble outcomes. Furthermore, the reference point is assumed to be the less risky option (i.e., sure thing). Loss aversion (greater impact of negative change than positive change) and pessimism (belief the worst outcome is likelier) predict risk aversion. Gain seeking (greater impact of positive change than negative change and optimism (belief the best outcome is likelier) predict risk seeking. But other combinations of hedonic sensitivities and beliefs are possible, and they also predict risk preferences. Finally, feelings about the reference point predict hedonic sensitivities. When decision makers feel good about the reference point, they are frequently loss averse. When they feel bad about it, they are often gain seeking. Three studies show that feelings about reference points, feelings about options and feelings about outcomes predict risky choice and help explain why individuals differ in their risk preferences.

中文翻译：

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参考点理论：风险偏好个体差异的解释。

我们提出了一种关于风险偏好个体差异的解释，称为“参考点理论”，用于确定事物和赌博之间的选择。与大多数风险选择的描述性理论一样，偏好取决于两个驱动因素——对变化的享乐敏感性和对风险的信念。但与大多数理论不同的是，这些驱动因素是根据对选择选项和赌博结果的判断感受来估计的。此外，假设参考点是风险较小的选项（即，肯定的事情）。损失厌恶（负面变化的影响比积极变化的影响更大）和悲观主义（相信最坏的结果更有可能发生）预测风险厌恶。追求收益（积极变化的影响比消极变化和乐观（相信最好的结果更有可能）预测风险寻求。但享乐敏感性和信念的其他组合也是可能的，它们也预测风险偏好。最后，对参考点的感受预测享乐敏感性。当决策者对参考点感觉良好时，他们通常会厌恶损失。当他们感觉不好时，他们往往会寻求收益。三项研究表明，对参考点的感觉、对选择的感觉和对结果的感觉可以预测风险选择并有助于解释为什么个人的风险偏好不同。