Firms often oppose costly public policy reforms—but under what conditions may they come to support such reforms? Previous scholarship has taken a predominantly static approach to the analysis of business positions. Here, we advance a dynamic theory of change in business policy positions that explains how business may shift from opposing to supporting new regulation over the course of multiple rounds of policymaking. We identify three sets of drivers and causal mechanisms behind business repositioning related to political, policy, and market change. We argue that political mechanisms can shift opposition to “strategic support” for reform, whereas policy and market mechanisms may shift opposition or strategic support toward “sincere support.” We examine the reconfiguration of business interests and policy positions in the context of three decades of US climate politics, focusing on the oil and gas, electricity, and auto sectors. Our dynamic theory of business positions moves beyond the dualism that views business as either opposing or supporting public interest regulation. We thus advance our understanding of why initial business opposition can incrementally turn into strategic or sincere support for policy reform.

企业常常反对代价高昂的公共政策改革，但在什么条件下他们可能会支持此类改革？以前的学术研究主要采用静态方法来分析商业职位。在这里，我们提出了商业政策立场变化的动态理论，解释了在多轮政策制定过程中，商业如何从反对新监管转向支持新监管。我们确定了与政治、政策和市场变化相关的业务重新定位背后的三组驱动因素和因果机制。我们认为，政治机制可以将反对派转变为对改革的“战略支持”，而政策和市场机制则可以将反对派或战略支持转变为对改革的“真诚支持”。我们研究了美国三十年来气候政治背景下商业利益和政策立场的重新配置，重点关注石油和天然气、电力和汽车行业。我们的动态商业立场理论超越了将商业视为反对或支持公共利益监管的二元论。因此，我们加深了对为什么最初的商业反对可以逐渐转变为对政策改革的战略或真诚支持的理解。