OBJECTIVE The risk of mistaken identification for innocent suspects in lineups can be estimated by correcting the overall error rate by the number of people in the lineup. We compared this nominal size correction to a new effective size correction, which adjusts the error rate for the number of plausible lineup members. HYPOTHESES We hypothesized that (a) increasing lineup bias would increase misidentifications of a designated innocent suspect; (b) with the effective size correction, increasing lineup bias would also increase the estimate of innocent-suspect misidentifications; and (c) with the nominal size correction, lineup bias would have no effect on the estimate of innocent-suspect misidentifications. METHOD In a reanalysis of previous literature, we obtained 10 data sets from Open Science Framework. In three new experiments (Ns = 686, 405, and 1,531, respectively), participants observed a staged crime and completed a fair or biased lineup. RESULTS In the reanalysis of previous literature, less than four of six lineup members were identified frequently enough to be classified as plausible, M = 3.78, 95% confidence interval [CI: 2.20, 5.36]. In the new experiments, increasing lineup bias increased mistaken identifications of a designated innocent suspect, odds ratio (OR) = 5.50, 95% CI [2.77, 10.95] and also increased the effective size-corrected estimate of innocent-suspect misidentifications, OR = 3.04, 95% CI [2.13, 4.33]. With the nominal size correction, lineup bias had no effect on the estimate of innocent-suspect misidentifications, OR = 0.84, 95% CI [0.60, 1.18]. CONCLUSIONS Most lineups include a combination of plausible and implausible lineup members. Contrary to the nominal size correction, which ignores implausible lineup members, the effective size correction is sensitive to implausible lineup members and accounts for lineup bias when estimating the risk of innocent suspect misidentifications. (PsycInfo Database Record (c) 2023 APA, all rights reserved).

中文翻译：

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公平和有偏见阵容中目击者错误率的估计。

目的 通过阵容中的人数校正总体错误率，可以估计阵容中无辜嫌疑人被错误识别的风险。我们将此名义尺寸修正与新的有效尺寸修正进行了比较，后者调整了合理阵容成员数量的错误率。假设 我们假设 (a) 阵容偏差的增加会增加对指定无辜嫌疑人的误认；(b) 通过有效规模修正，阵容偏差的增加也会增加对无辜嫌疑人误认的估计；(c) 通过名义规模修正，阵容偏差不会对无辜嫌疑人误认的估计产生影响。方法在对以往文献的重新分析中，我们从开放科学框架中获得了10个数据集。在三个新实验中（Ns 分别为 686、405 和 1,531），参与者观察了一场上演的犯罪活动，并完成了公平或有偏见的阵容。结果 在对先前文献的重新分析中，六名阵容成员中不到四名被频繁识别为合理，M = 3.78，95% 置信区间 [CI: 2.20, 5.36]。在新实验中，增加阵容偏差会增加对指定无辜嫌疑人的错误识别，比值比 (OR) = 5.50，95% CI [2.77, 10.95]，并且还增加了对无辜嫌疑人错误识别的有效大小校正估计，OR = 3.04，95% CI [2.13，4.33]。通过名义规模修正，阵容偏差对无辜嫌疑人误认的估计没有影响，OR = 0.84，95% CI [0.60，1.18]。结论 大多数阵容都包括可信和不可信的阵容成员。与忽略不可信的阵容成员的名义规模修正相反，有效规模修正对不可信的阵容成员敏感，并在估计无辜嫌疑人误认的风险时考虑阵容偏差。（PsycInfo 数据库记录 (c) 2023 APA，保留所有权利）。