An intractable domestic conflict between forces on the right and the left roiled the Second Spanish Republic. We claim that international trade shocks exacerbated political instability. Leveraging an exposure design and disaggregated trade and employment data, we study the effects of import and export exposure on vote shares of parties and coalitions in the Republic's three elections, 1931, 1933, and 1936. An increase in import exposure had a modest effect on election outcomes. The primary vector of change was the disruption in export markets caused by the world depression and discriminatory trade practices, most importantly the United Kingdom's adoption of imperial preference. Trade dislocation harmed the left and benefitted the right. If trade had remained at 1928 levels, our projections show that the Popular Front would have gained a clear and comfortable majority in the decisive 1936 election.

中文翻译：

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意想不到的后果：西班牙第二共和国期间的国际贸易冲击和选举结果，1931-1936 年

右翼和左翼势力之间棘手的国内冲突扰乱了西班牙第二共和国。我们声称国际贸易冲击加剧了政治不稳定。利用风险敞口设计和分类贸易和就业数据，我们研究了进出口风险敞口对 1931 年、1933 年和 1936 年共和国三届选举中政党和联盟的投票份额的影响。进口风险敞口的增加对选举结果。变革的主要载体是世界经济萧条和歧视性贸易做法（最重要的是英国采取帝国优惠政策）对出口市场造成的破坏。贸易错位损害了左派，也有利于右派。如果贸易保持在 1928 年的水平，我们的预测表明，人民阵线将在 1936 年决定性的选举中获得明显且轻松的多数席位。