Conditional cash transfers (CCTs) are a striking case of policy diffusion in Latin America. Almost all countries in the region adopted the model within one decade. While most theories of diffusion focus on the international transference of ideas, this article explains that surge of adoptions by analyzing presidents’ expectations. Out of all ideas transmitted into a country, only a few find their way into enactment and implementation, and the executive has a key role in selecting which ones. Policies expected to boost presidents’ popularity grab their attention. They rapidly enact and implement these models. A process-tracing analysis comparing CCTs and public-private partnerships (PPPs) shows that presidents fast-tracked CCTs hoping for an increase in popular support. Adoptions of PPPs, however, followed normal procedures and careful deliberations because the policy was not expected to quickly affect popularity—which, in the aggregate, leads to a slower diffusion wave.

有条件现金转移支付（CCT）是拉丁美洲政策扩散的一个引人注目的案例。十年内该地区几乎所有国家都采用了这一模式。虽然大多数扩散理论都关注思想的国际转移，但本文通过分析总统的期望来解释采用的激增。在传播到一个国家的所有想法中，只有少数能够得到颁布和实施，而行政部门在选择哪些想法方面发挥着关键作用。有望提高总统受欢迎程度的政策引起了他们的注意。他们迅速制定并实施这些模型。对 CCT 和公私合作伙伴关系 (PPP) 进行比较的过程追踪分析表明，总统快速推进 CCT 是希望增加民众支持。然而，公私伙伴关系的采用遵循了正常程序和仔细的审议，因为预计该政策不会迅速影响受欢迎程度——总的来说，这会导致扩散浪潮放缓。