参考蒸散量 (ET0) 是水文学中的一个关键参数。它具有多种实际应用,从了解水文循环到估计农业高效灌溉所需的作物用水量。广泛采用FAO PENMAN-MONTEITH (FAO-PM)方法,也是FAO推荐的ET0估算方法。然而,它需要多个测量的气象参数,而这些参数在某些条件下很难获得。这项工作填补了这一空白,并利用数据驱动方法(即机器学习和深度学习模型)的潜力,在使用有限数量的易于获取的参数的同时准确估计 ET0。该研究使用基于物理的模型(FAO-PM 和 Hargreaves)作为数据驱动模型的 ET0 学习数据提供者。首先,向物理模型输入 2013 年至 2020 年期间每小时的气象数据来估算 ET0。数据来源于我们研究区坦西夫特盆地(摩洛哥中部)的现场当地气象站和哥白尼 ERA5-土地再分析数据。接下来,作为预处理步骤,使用基于决策树的方法执行特征工程。我们评估了天气参数对于 ET0 估算的预测重要性。每个参数的分数在 0 到 1 之间,表明其功效。值得注意的是,平均气温和全球太阳辐射表现突出,共同超过了 86% 的重要性阈值。相比之下,其余参数的重要性较低,仅为 10%。这强调了平均气温和全球太阳辐射作为准确 ET0 估算的重要预测因素的重要意义。最后,在建模阶段,重点介绍了三种深度学习模型:长短期记忆(LSTM)、门控循环单元和卷积神经网络。值得注意的是,LSTM 模型表现出卓越的性能,提供了可比的决定系数 (R 2 ) 和均方根误差 (RMSE) 结果,超越了同类模型。在使用 Hargreaves 和 FAO-56 PM 方法进行单变量预测方面,LSTM 在所有数据源中始终实现 0.90 的高 R 2值,同时在 0.004 至 0.07 mm 的低 MAE、MSE 和 RMSE 值中体现出令人印象深刻的准确性/天。此外,集成学习模型XGBoost具有最佳预测性能,R 2 = 0.93,RMSE = 0.03 mm/day。这证实了机器学习模型在中小型数据集上的性能优于深度学习架构。所提出的模型将被整合到一个欠发达的农业决策支持系统中。
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Advanced learning models for estimating the spatio-temporal variability of reference evapotranspiration using in-situ and ERA5-Land reanalysis data
Reference Evapotranspiration (ET0) is a key parameter in hydrology. It has a variety of practical applications, ranging from understanding the hydrological cycle to estimating crop water needs for efficient irrigation in agriculture. The FAO PENMAN–MONTEITH (FAO-PM) method is largely adopted and is the recommended method by the FAO for ET0 estimation. However, it requires multiple measured meteorological parameters that are, in some conditions, difficult to obtain. This work fills this gap and leverages the potential of data-driven methods, namely machine learning and deep learning models, to accurately estimate ET0 while using a limited number of easy-to-obtain parameters. The study uses physical-based models (FAO-PM and Hargreaves) as ET0 learning data providers for data-driven models. First, physical models were fed with meteorological data covering the period 2013–2020 at an hourly scale to estimate ET0. The data were sourced from the in-situ local weather station of our study area in the Tensift basin (center of Morocco) and from the Copernicus ERA5-Land reanalysis data. Next, as a preprocessing step, feature engineering was performed using a decision tree-based approach. We evaluated the predictive importance of weather parameters for ET0 estimation. Scores between 0 and 1 were assigned to each parameter, indicating their efficacy. Notably, mean air temperature and global solar radiation stood out, collectively surpassing an 86% importance threshold. In contrast to the rest of the parameters that have a low importance of 10%. This emphasizes the critical significance of mean air temperature and global solar radiation as essential predictors for accurate ET0 estimation. Finally, during the modeling phase, three deep-learning models Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM), Gated Recurrent Unit, and Convolutional Neural Network are highlighted. Notably, the LSTM model exhibits superior performance, delivering comparable coefficients of determination (R2) and root mean square error (RMSE) results, surpassing its counterparts. In terms of univariate predictions using the Hargreaves and FAO-56 PM methods, the LSTM consistently achieves high R2 values of 0.90 across all data sources, accompanied by impressive accuracy reflected in low MAE, MSE, and RMSE values ranging from 0.004 to 0.07 mm/day. In addition, the ensemble learning model XGBoost had the best prediction performance with R2 = 0.93 and RMSE = 0.03 mm/day. This confirms that machine learning models outperform deep learning architectures for small and medium-sized datasets. The proposed models will be integrated into an under-development agricultural decision support system.