Aftershocks can compound the impacts of a major earthquake, disrupting recovery efforts and potentially further damaging weakened buildings and infrastructure. Forecasts of the probability of aftershocks can therefore aid decision-making during earthquake response and recovery. Several countries issue authoritative aftershock forecasts. Most aftershock forecasts are based on simple statistical models that were first developed in the 1980s and remain the best available models. We review these statistical models and the wide-ranging research to advance aftershock forecasting through better statistical, physical, and machine-learning methods. Physics-based forecasts based on mainshock stress changes can sometimes match the statistical models in testing but do not yet outperform them. Physical models are also hampered by unsolved problems such as the mechanics of dynamic triggering and the influence of background conditions. Initial work on machine-learning forecasts shows promise, and new machine-learning earthquake catalogs provide an opportunity to advance all types of aftershock forecasts. ▪Several countries issue real-time aftershock forecasts following significant earthquakes, providing information to aid response and recovery.▪Statistical models based on past aftershocks are used to compute aftershock probability as a function of space, time, and magnitude.▪Aftershock forecasting is advancing through better statistical models, constraints on physical triggering mechanisms, and machine learning.▪Large high-resolution earthquake catalogs provide an opportunity to advance physical, statistical, and machine-learning aftershock models.

中文翻译：

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 余震预报


余震会加剧大地震的影响，扰乱恢复工作，并可能进一步破坏脆弱的建筑物和基础设施。因此，对余震概率的预测有助于地震响应和恢复期间的决策。一些国家发布了权威的余震预报。大多数余震预报都基于简单的统计模型，这些模型最初是在 1980 年代开发的，并且仍然是最好的可用模型。我们回顾了这些统计模型和广泛的研究，以通过更好的统计、物理和机器学习方法推进余震预测。基于主震应力变化的基于物理的预测有时可以在测试中与统计模型相匹配，但尚未超过统计模型。物理模型还受到未解决的问题的阻碍，例如动态触发的机制和背景条件的影响。机器学习预报的初步工作显示出前景，新的机器学习地震目录为推进所有类型的余震预报提供了机会。▪一些国家在重大地震后发布实时余震预报，为帮助响应和恢复提供信息。▪基于过去余震的统计模型用于计算余震概率与空间、时间和震级的关系。▪余震预报正在通过更好的统计模型、对物理触发机制的约束和机器学习而发展。▪大型高分辨率地震目录为发展提供了机会物理、统计和机器学习余震模型。