Future Caspian Sea level change is estimated for the 21st century using 15 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 climate models and three shared socioeconomic pathways. Projected evaporation increase is significantly larger than precipitation increase integrated over the Caspian Sea catchment basin, resulting in an increasingly negative water balance over the 21st century. A best-fit model analysis that resolves important model limitations related to spatial resolution, climate sensitivity, and Caspian Sea surface area suggests climate-driven sea level reductions of about 8 (inter-model range from 2 to 15) m and 14 (inter-model range from 11 to 21) m by the end of this century for the SSP245 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively. A sea level decline of these magnitudes will result in complete desiccation of the northern Caspian basin and will have adverse effects on ecosystems, coastal infrastructure, navigation, biodiversity, and economies of the entire Caspian region.

使用 15 个耦合模型比较项目 6 个气候模型和三个共享的社会经济路径来估计 21 世纪未来里海海平面的变化。预计蒸发量增幅明显大于里海集水盆地的降水量增幅，导致 21 世纪水负平衡日益严重。最佳拟合模型分析解决了与空间分辨率、气候敏感性和里海表面积相关的重要模型局限性，表明气候驱动的海平面下降约 8（模型间范围为 2 至 15）米和 14（模型间范围为 2 至 15）米到本世纪末，SSP245 和 SSP585 场景的模型范围分别为 11 至 21) m。