Crackdowns are law enforcement strategies based on the principles of deterrence theory, which stipulates that offenders are rational actors who will refrain from crime if perceived risks are higher than perceived benefits. Studies have shown that the effects of police street drug crackdowns are mostly short termed and followed by considerable displacement. In the early 2010s, an important part of illicit drug trades moved online to cryptomarkets, and law enforcement agencies have responded by engaging in online drug crackdowns. In this study, we focus on the perceptions of dark web users in order to determine, from a qualitative “data-driven” perspective, whether police online crackdowns may have a cyber-deterrent effect by analyzing 1796 forum posts. Our results show that these events trigger psychological and practical consequences that participants claim to have a conditional, although minor, deterrent effect. In the majority of cases, dark web users claimed to engage in several forms of spatial and tactical displacement.

中文翻译：

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“就像治疗关节炎的阿司匹林”：与警方打击暗网相关的有条件网络威慑的定性研究

打击行动是基于威慑理论原则的执法策略，该理论规定，犯罪者是理性行为者，如果感知到的风险高于感知到的收益，他们将避免犯罪。研究表明，警方打击街头毒品的效果大多是短期的，随后会造成相当大的流离失所。2010 年代初期，非法毒品交易的一个重要部分转移到了网上加密货币市场，执法机构的应对措施是开展网上毒品打击活动。在本研究中，我们关注暗网用户的看法，通过分析 1796 个论坛帖子，从定性的“数据驱动”角度确定警方的网络打击是否可能具有网络威慑作用。我们的结果表明，这些事件会引发心理和实际后果，参与者声称具有有条件的威慑作用，尽管威慑作用很小。在大多数情况下，暗网用户声称进行了多种形式的空间和战术转移。