Populations and infrastructure in high mountain regions are exposed to a wide range of natural hazards, the frequency, magnitude, and location of which are extremely sensitive to climate change. In cases where several hazards can occur simultaneously or where the occurrence of one event will change the disposition of another, assessments need to account for complex process chains. While process chains are widely recognized as a major threat, no systematic analysis has hitherto been undertaken. We therefore establish new understanding on the factors that directly trigger or alter the disposition for subsequent events in the chain and derive a novel classification scheme and parameters to aid natural hazard assessment. Process chains in high mountains are commonly associated with glacier retreat or permafrost degradation. Regional differences exist in the nature and rate of sequencing—some process chains are almost instantaneous, while other linkages are delayed. Process chains involving rapid sequences are difficult to predict, and impacts are often devastating. We demonstrate that process chains are triggered most frequently by progressive failures, being the result of gradual landscape weakening and not due to the occurrence of a distinct process. If fluvial processes are part of the process chain the reach (or mobility) of process chains is increased. Increased mobility can also occur if sediment deposition areas along river channels are activated. As climate changes causes glacial environments to transform into sediment-rich paraglacial and fluvial landscapes, it is expected that the mobility of process chains will increase in the future.

中文翻译：

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高山地区地貌过程链——自然灾害评估回顾与分类方法

高山地区的人口和基础设施面临各种自然灾害，其频率、规模和位置对气候变化极为敏感。如果多种危险可能同时发生，或者一个事件的发生将改变另一事件的处置，则评估需要考虑复杂的过程链。虽然流程链被广泛认为是主要威胁，但迄今为止尚未进行系统分析。因此，我们对直接触发或改变链中后续事件处置的因素建立了新的理解，并得出新的分类方案和参数以帮助自然灾害评估。高山中的过程链通常与冰川退缩或永久冻土退化有关。测序的性质和速度存在区域差异——一些流程链几乎是瞬时的，而其他链接则有延迟。涉及快速序列的流程链很难预测，而且影响往往是毁灭性的。我们证明，过程链最常由渐进性失败触发，是景观逐渐弱化的结果，而不是由于独特过程的发生。如果河流过程是过程链的一部分，则过程链的范围（或移动性）就会增加。如果河道沿岸的沉积物沉积区域被激活，流动性也会增加。随着气候变化导致冰川环境转变为沉积物丰富的冰川和河流景观，预计未来过程链的流动性将会增加。