Climate change poses a serious risk to sustainable forest management, particularly in boreal forests where natural disturbances have been projected to become more severe. In three Quebec boreal forest management units, biomass carbon storage under various climate change and management scenarios was projected over 300 years (2010–2310) with a process-based dynamic landscape model (PnET-succession for Landis-II). Several strategies varying in their use of partial cuts and clear cuts, including business as usual (BAU) (clear-cut applied on more than 95% of the managed area), were tested and compared to conservation scenarios (no-harvest). Based on simulation results at the landscape scale, the clearcut-based scenarios such as BAU could result in a decrease of biomass carbon stock by 10 tC ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ compared to the natural scenario. However, this reduction in carbon stock could be offset in the long term through changes in composition, as clearcut systems promote the expansion of trembling aspen and white birch. In contrast, the use of strategies based on partial cuts on more than 75% or 50% of the managed area was closer to or better than the natural scenario and resulted in greater coniferous cover retention. These strategies seemed to be the best to maximize and stabilize biomass carbon storage and ensure wood supply under different climate change scenarios, yet they would require further access and appropriate infrastructure. Furthermore, these strategies could maintain species compositions and age structures similar to natural scenarios, and thus may consequently help achieve forest ecosystem-based management targets. This study presents promising strategies to guide sustainable forest management in Eastern Canada in the context of climate change.

气候变化对可持续森林管理构成严重风险，特别是在北方森林，预计自然干扰将变得更加严重。在魁北克省的三个北方森林管理单位中，使用基于过程的动态景观模型（Landis-II 的 PnET 继承）预测了各种气候变化和管理情景下的生物量碳储存 300 年（2010-2310 年）。对部分砍伐和皆伐的使用有所不同的几种策略进行了测试，并与保护情景（无收获）进行了比较，其中包括一切照旧 (BAU)（在超过 95% 的管理区域中实施了砍伐）。根据景观尺度的模拟结果，与自然情景相比，BAU等基于清除的情景可能导致生物质碳储量减少10 tC ha ^-1  yr ^{-1 。}然而，从长远来看，碳储量的减少可以通过成分的变化来抵消，因为砍伐系统促进了颤杨和白桦的扩张。相比之下，对超过 75% 或 50% 的管理区域使用基于部分砍伐的策略更接近或优于自然情景，并导致更大的针叶树覆盖保留。这些策略似乎是最大化和稳定生物质碳储存并确保不同气候变化情景下木材供应的最佳策略，但它们需要进一步的获取和适当的基础设施。此外，这些策略可以保持与自然情景相似的物种组成和年龄结构，因此可能有助于实现基于森林生态系统的管理目标。这项研究提出了在气候变化背景下指导加拿大东部可持续森林管理的有前景的战略。