Economists have reported results based on populations for every country in the world for the past two thousand years. The source, McEvedy and Jones’ Atlas of World Population History, includes many estimates that are little more than guesses and that do not reflect research since 1978. McEvedy and Jones often infer population sizes from their view of a particular economy, making their estimates poor proxies for economic growth. Their rounding means their measurement error is not “classical.” Some economists augment that error by disaggregating regions in unfounded ways. Econometric results that rest on McEvedy and Jones are unreliable.“… we haven’t just pulled the figures out of the sky. Well, not often.”—McEvedy and Jones (1978, p. 11)

中文翻译：

---

我们不知道过去两千年来世界上每个国家的人口数量

经济学家根据过去两千多年来世界各国的人口得出了结果。消息来源，麦克埃维迪和琼斯世界人口史地图集，包括许多仅是猜测的估计，并且不反映自 1978 年以来的研究。麦克埃维迪和琼斯经常从他们对特定经济的看法来推断人口规模，这使得他们的估计无法代表经济增长。它们的四舍五入意味着它们的测量误差不是“经典的”。一些经济学家以毫无根据的方式对地区进行分类，从而加剧了这一错误。麦克埃维迪和琼斯的计量经济学结果是不可靠的。嗯，不经常。”——McEvedy 和 Jones (1978，第 11 页)