Food prices spiked sharply in 2007–2008, in 2010–2011 and again in 2021–2022. However, the impacts of these spikes on poverty remain controversial; while food is a large expense for the poor, many poor people also earn income from producing or marketing food, and higher prices should incentivize greater food production. Short-run simulation models assume away production and wage adjustments, and probably underestimate food production by the poor. Here we analyse annual data on poverty rates, real food price changes and food production growth for 33 middle-income countries from 2000 to 2019 based on World Bank poverty measures. Panel regressions show that year-on-year increases in the real price of food predict reductions in the US$3.20-per-day poverty headcount, except in more urban or non-agrarian countries. A plausible explanation is that rising food prices stimulate short-run agricultural supply responses that induce increased demand for unskilled labour and increases in wages.

食品价格在 2007-2008 年、2010-2011 年和 2021-2022 年再次飙升。然而，这些飙升对贫困的影响仍然存在争议;虽然食品对穷人来说是一大笔开支，但许多穷人也通过生产或销售食品获得收入，更高的价格应该会激励更多的食品生产。短期模拟模型假设生产和工资调整，并且可能低估了穷人的粮食产量。在这里，我们根据世界银行的贫困指标分析了 33 个中等收入国家 2000 年至 2019 年的贫困率、实际食品价格变化和粮食生产增长的年度数据。面板回归分析显示，食品实际价格的同比上涨预示着每天 3.20 美元的贫困人口人数会减少，但城市或非农业国家除外。一个合理的解释是，食品价格上涨刺激了短期农业供应反应，从而导致对非熟练劳动力的需求增加和工资上涨。