在当前能源和地缘政治危机的背景下,能源的可持续供应和利用对于应对气候变化和全球向低碳经济转型发挥着关键作用。化石燃料(即原煤、原油和天然气)的供应链风险与可持续发展目标(SDG)强调的可持续生产和消费密切相关。然而,化石燃料的稀缺或禀赋对全球范围的影响仍然未知,这阻碍了从全球角度来看的可持续化石燃料管理。本研究分析了各国的稀缺加权化石燃料开采(即供应方)和足迹(即需求方)。它识别了在关注供应或需求本身时无法揭示的隐藏供应链风险(例如,法国、挪威、供给侧为厄瓜多尔,需求侧为法国、德国、挪威)。此外,某些国家(例如法国、澳大利亚和俄罗斯)的隐含化石燃料的净贸易(=进出口)流量甚至出现了逆转。这项研究的新颖发现证明了将稀缺足迹纳入可持续发展目标框架以揭示隐藏的供应链风险的重要性。它们可以为全球可持续化石燃料管理提供更明确和有针对性的影响。在国际能源贸易关系复杂的背景下,高风险国家应加快能源转型,加强供需双方的国际合作。某些国家(例如法国、澳大利亚和俄罗斯)的隐含化石燃料的净贸易(=进出口)流量甚至发生了逆转。这项研究的新颖发现证明了将稀缺足迹纳入可持续发展目标框架以揭示隐藏的供应链风险的重要性。它们可以为全球可持续化石燃料管理提供更明确和有针对性的影响。在国际能源贸易关系复杂的背景下,高风险国家应加快能源转型,加强供需双方的国际合作。某些国家(例如法国、澳大利亚和俄罗斯)的隐含化石燃料的净贸易(=进出口)流量甚至发生了逆转。这项研究的新颖发现证明了将稀缺足迹纳入可持续发展目标框架以揭示隐藏的供应链风险的重要性。它们可以为全球可持续化石燃料管理提供更明确和有针对性的影响。在国际能源贸易关系复杂的背景下,高风险国家应加快能源转型,加强供需双方的国际合作。这项研究的新颖发现证明了将稀缺足迹纳入可持续发展目标框架以揭示隐藏的供应链风险的重要性。它们可以为全球可持续化石燃料管理提供更明确和有针对性的影响。在国际能源贸易关系复杂的背景下,高风险国家应加快能源转型,加强供需双方的国际合作。这项研究的新颖发现证明了将稀缺足迹纳入可持续发展目标框架以揭示隐藏的供应链风险的重要性。它们可以为全球可持续化石燃料管理提供更明确和有针对性的影响。在国际能源贸易关系复杂的背景下,高风险国家应加快能源转型,加强供需双方的国际合作。
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Incorporating scarcity into footprints reveals diverse supply chain hotspots for global fossil fuel management
In the current context of energy and geopolitical crises, the sustainable supply and use of energy play a critical role in responding to climate change and the global transformation towards a low-carbon economy. The supply-chain risks of fossil fuels (i.e., raw coal, crude oil, and natural gas) are closely linked to sustainable production and consumption, emphasized by Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). However, the impacts of scarcity or endowment of fossil fuels on the global scale remain unknown, which hinders sustainable fossil fuel management from a global perspective. This study analyses the scarcity-weighted fossil fuel extractions (i.e., supply side) and footprints (i.e., demand side) of nations. It identifies the hidden supply-chain risks that cannot be revealed when focusing on supply or demand itself (e.g., France, Norway, and Ecuador from the supply side, and France, Germany, and Norway from the demand side). Moreover, the net trade (= import-export) flows of embodied fossil fuels of certain nations (e.g., France, Australia, and Russia) have even reversed. The novel findings of this study demonstrate the importance of incorporating scarcity footprint into the SDG framework to reveal the hidden supply-chain risks. They could inform more explicit and targeted implications for global sustainable fossil fuel management. Under the background of complex international energy trade relations, nations with high risks should accelerate their energy transitions and strengthen international cooperation from both supply and demand sides.