This paper summarizes the results of 10 years of research on models of the megathrust earthquake cycles and crustal deformation associated with the 2011 Tohoku-oki earthquake. Several earthquake cycle models have been proposed for the northeast Japan subduction zone to elucidate why megathrust earthquakes occur at intervals of approximately 600 years and why large slips occurred in the shallow subduction zone. A model that considers a strong asperity in the shallow plate interface, and a hierarchical asperity model that considers the scale dependence of the critical displacement of the rate- and state-dependent friction law have been proposed. Modeling with dynamic weakening of faults has also been proposed. In the model using the shallow friction characteristics obtained by the Japan Trench Fast Drilling Project, rupture from depth can propagate to the trench, resulting in shallow large slips. Submarine crustal deformation has been observed for the first time in addition to dense observations of the inland crustal deformation. The observation of the seafloor deformation near the trench showed that viscoelastic relaxation played an important role in short-term postseismic deformation near the trench. The effects of the low-viscosity region at the oceanic lithosphere and asthenosphere boundary, and the cold forearc mantle wedge (cold nose) have been discussed. Simulations using the nonlinear flow law of rock in the mantle, where a power–law relationship holds between stress and strain rate, and the fault friction law at the plate boundary, show that the Tohoku-oki earthquake caused large stress fluctuations, resulting in a sudden viscosity decrease and rapid flow in the asthenosphere below the oceanic lithosphere. The simulations of the crustal deformation associated with the Tohoku-oki earthquake cycle also indicate that in the later stage of the earthquake cycle, the Pacific coastal region begins to subside due to the increasing slip deficit rate on the deeper parts of the plate interface. These results explain the subsidence of the Pacific coast of northeast Japan observed for about 100 years prior to the Tohoku-oki earthquake. In the future, a model that explains the long-term crust and mantle deformation during the entire Tohoku-oki earthquake cycle must be constructed.

本文总结了 10 年来对 2011 年东北冲地震相关的巨型逆冲地震周期和地壳变形模型的研究成果。人们为日本东北俯冲带提出了几种地震周期模型，以阐明为什么每隔约 600 年就会发生一次大逆冲地震，以及为什么浅俯冲带会发生大滑移。提出了考虑浅板界面中强粗糙度的模型，以及考虑速率和状态相关摩擦定律的临界位移的尺度依赖性的分层粗糙度模型。还提出了断层动态弱化建模。在利用日本海沟快速钻探项目获得的浅层摩擦特性的模型中，来自深度的破裂可以传播到沟槽，导致浅层大滑移。除对内陆地壳变形进行密集观测外，还首次观测到海底地壳变形。对海沟附近海底变形的观测表明，粘弹性松弛对海沟附近的短期震后变形起着重要作用。讨论了大洋岩石圈和软流圈边界的低粘度区域以及冷前弧地幔楔（冷鼻）的影响。使用地幔中岩石的非线性流动定律（应力和应变率之间存在幂律关系）以及板块边界的断层摩擦定律进行的模拟表明，东北冲地震引起了较大的应力波动，导致海洋岩石圈下方软流圈的粘度突然降低和快速流动。与东北冲地震周期相关的地壳变形模拟也表明，在地震周期后期，由于板块界面较深部分滑移赤字率的增加，太平洋沿岸地区开始下沉。这些结果解释了东北冲地震前约 100 年观察到的日本东北部太平洋海岸的下沉。未来，必须建立一个模型来解释整个东北冲地震周期期间地壳和地幔的长期变形。与东北冲地震周期相关的地壳变形模拟也表明，在地震周期后期，由于板块界面较深部分滑移赤字率的增加，太平洋沿岸地区开始下沉。这些结果解释了东北冲地震前约 100 年观察到的日本东北部太平洋海岸的下沉。未来，必须建立一个模型来解释整个东北冲地震周期期间地壳和地幔的长期变形。与东北冲地震周期相关的地壳变形模拟也表明，在地震周期后期，由于板块界面较深部分滑移赤字率的增加，太平洋沿岸地区开始下沉。这些结果解释了东北冲地震前约 100 年观察到的日本东北部太平洋海岸的下沉。未来，必须建立一个模型来解释整个东北冲地震周期期间地壳和地幔的长期变形。这些结果解释了东北冲地震前约 100 年观察到的日本东北部太平洋海岸的下沉。未来，必须建立一个模型来解释整个东北冲地震周期期间地壳和地幔的长期变形。这些结果解释了东北冲地震前约 100 年观察到的日本东北部太平洋海岸的下沉。未来，必须建立一个模型来解释整个东北冲地震周期期间地壳和地幔的长期变形。