This review evaluates three micro and three macro estimation approaches to determine whether unrealistic differences exist in estimating the size of nonobserved/shadow economies. While some macro-MIMIC estimates are higher than estimates using the statistical discrepancy approach, when adjusting for double-counting, MIMIC approaches provide similar results. Macro approaches usually cover not only typical shadow economy activities, but also voluntary work, do-it-yourself activities, and classical crime activities; by nature, macro approaches will lead to higher and more accurate estimates than micro approaches. However, if certain adjustments are made, the estimated size of the shadow economy using the MIMIC approach comes close to the size of the shadow economy indicated by micro survey approaches. Hence, claims that macro approaches are unrealistically high and rely on unrealistic assumptions must be reconsidered.

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不同的估计方法是否会导致未观测或影子经济规模的难以置信的差异？初步答案


本综述评估了三种微观和三种宏观估计方法，以确定在估计未观察到/影子经济的规模时是否存在不切实际的差异。虽然一些宏 MIMIC 估计值高于使用统计差异方法的估计值，但在调整重复计数时，MIMIC 方法提供了类似的结果。宏观方法通常不仅包括典型的影子经济活动，还包括志愿工作、自己动手活动和典型的犯罪活动;从本质上讲，宏观方法将导致比微观方法更高、更准确的估计。然而，如果进行某些调整，使用 MIMIC 方法的影子经济估计规模接近微观调查方法指示的影子经济规模。因此，必须重新考虑声称宏方法不切实际的高水平并且依赖于不切实际的假设。