Abstract

The recent growth and development of aquaculture industry in Bangladesh demand a thorough investigation of price volatility spillover pattern among capture fisheries and aquaculture products. Utilizing nationally representative monthly retail price data of the last seventeen years, we identify the evidence of volatility spillover effects among capture fisheries and aquaculture markets. We find three phases of fish price movements: (1) fish prices, in general, were increasing prior to 2013 with higher fluctuations and structural breaks; (2) prices were comparatively stable from 2013 to 2019 for almost all markets with sporadic shocks; (3) increasing trajectory of fish prices are observed during the COVID-19 period. We also find that all the aquaculture products have significant direct or indirect long-run volatility spillover effect to capture fish market. We identify only one aquaculture product with a significant positive own price asymmetric effect indicating negative news increases the price volatility behavior in its own market. Our findings may play a vital role in implementing suitable food security policies and reducing overexploitation of natural resources. Policies promoting fish price stability should prioritize tilapia and pangasius markets, and targeted investments in the aquaculture industry should be made to promote greater stability in the fisheries and aquaculture market.

摘要

孟加拉国水产养殖业最近的增长和发展要求对捕捞渔业和水产养殖产品之间的价格波动溢出模式进行彻底调查。利用过去十七年具有全国代表性的月度零售价格数据，我们确定了捕捞渔业和水产养殖市场波动溢出效应的证据。我们发现鱼价走势分为三个阶段：（1）2013年之前鱼价总体呈上涨趋势，波动较大，结构性断裂；(2) 2013年至2019年，几乎所有市场的价格都相对稳定，有零星的波动；(3) 在 COVID-19 期间观察到鱼品价格呈上升趋势。我们还发现，所有水产养殖产品对占领鱼类市场都具有显着的直接或间接长期波动溢出效应。我们仅发现一种水产养殖产品具有显着的自身价格不对称效应，表明负面新闻增加了其自身市场的价格波动行为。我们的研究结果可能在实施适当的粮食安全政策和减少自然资源的过度开发方面发挥至关重要的作用。促进鱼价稳定的政策应优先考虑罗非鱼和巴沙鱼市场，并对水产养殖业进行有针对性的投资，以促进渔业和水产养殖市场的更大稳定。我们仅发现一种水产养殖产品具有显着的自身价格不对称效应，表明负面新闻增加了其自身市场的价格波动行为。我们的研究结果可能在实施适当的粮食安全政策和减少自然资源的过度开发方面发挥至关重要的作用。促进鱼价稳定的政策应优先考虑罗非鱼和巴沙鱼市场，并对水产养殖业进行有针对性的投资，以促进渔业和水产养殖市场的更大稳定。我们仅发现一种水产养殖产品具有显着的自身价格不对称效应，表明负面新闻增加了其自身市场的价格波动行为。我们的研究结果可能在实施适当的粮食安全政策和减少自然资源的过度开发方面发挥至关重要的作用。促进鱼价稳定的政策应优先考虑罗非鱼和巴沙鱼市场，并对水产养殖业进行有针对性的投资，以促进渔业和水产养殖市场的更大稳定。