Almost a decade after the 2011 post-electoral crisis, Côte d’Ivoire once again held elections marred by widespread violence. The third-term crisis revolved around President Alassane Ouattara’s controversial third-term bid and left at least 83 people dead and 633 people injured. This briefing draws on a new electoral violence dataset and field research to unpack patterns of violence during the crisis, and disentangles disruptive electoral violence related to the opposition’s campaign to thwart the election from incidental electoral violence related to the overall electoral tension. The findings show that incidental violence was far deadlier than disruptive violence, yet only tenuously related to the national political divide. This incidental violence was often driven by pre-existing local resource conflicts, revenge, rumours and disinformation, and elite manipulation. The briefing contributes new knowledge on the local drivers of electoral violence in Côte d’Ivoire, and cautions that viewing local communities only as victims of elite rivalries can make decision-makers overlook important risk factors.

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科特迪瓦第三任期危机期间的选举暴力模式

2011 年选举后危机发生近十年后，科特迪瓦再次举行了因普遍暴力事件而受到破坏的选举。第三次任期危机围绕总统阿拉萨内·瓦塔拉颇具争议的第三次竞选而展开，导致至少 83 人死亡、633 人受伤。本简报利用新的选举暴力数据集和实地研究来揭示危机期间的暴力模式，并将与反对派阻挠选举的运动相关的破坏性选举暴力与与整体选举紧张局势相关的偶发选举暴力区分开来。调查结果显示，偶发暴力比破坏性暴力致命得多，但与国家政治分歧的关系微乎其微。这种偶然的暴力往往是由当地已有的资源冲突、报复、谣言和虚假信息造成的，和精英操纵。该简报提供了关于科特迪瓦选举暴力当地驱动因素的新知识，并警告说，仅将当地社区视为精英竞争的受害者可能会让决策者忽视重要的风险因素。