Gun violence is the most pressing public safety problem in American cities. We report results from a randomized controlled trial (N = 2,456) of a community-researcher partnership called the Rapid Employment and Development Initiative (READI) Chicago. The program offered an 18-month job alongside cognitive behavioral therapy and other social support. Both algorithmic and human referral methods identified men with strikingly high scope for gun violence reduction: for every 100 people in the control group, there were 11 shooting and homicide victimizations during the 20-month outcome period. Fifty-five percent of the treatment group started programming, comparable to take-up rates in programs for people facing far lower mortality risk. After 20 months, there is no statistically significant change in an index combining three measures of serious violence, the study’s primary outcome. Yet there are signs that this program model has promise. One of the three measures, shooting and homicide arrests, declines 65 percent (p = .13 after multiple-testing adjustment). Because shootings are so costly, READI generates estimated social savings between $182,000 and $916,000 per participant (p = .03), implying a benefit-cost ratio between 4:1 and 20:1. Moreover, participants referred by outreach workers—a prespecified subgroup—show enormous declines in both arrests and victimizations for shootings and homicides (79 and 43 percent, respectively) which remain statistically significant even after multiple-testing adjustments. These declines are concentrated among outreach referrals with higher predicted risk, suggesting that human and algorithmic targeting may work better together.

中文翻译：

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预测和预防枪支暴力：芝加哥雷迪的实验评估

枪支暴力是美国城市最紧迫的公共安全问题。我们报告了芝加哥快速就业和发展倡议 (READI) 社区-研究人员合作伙伴关系的一项随机对照试验 (N = 2,456) 的结果。该计划提供了为期 18 个月的工作以及认知行为治疗和其他社会支持。算法和人工推荐方法均发现男性枪支暴力减少幅度惊人：在 20 个月的结果期内，对照组中每 100 人就有 11 人遭受枪击和凶杀。治疗组中有 55% 的人开始了计划，这与死亡率风险低得多的人的计划参与率相当。20个月后，该研究的主要结果是，结合严重暴力的三种衡量标准的指数没有统计学上的显着变化。但有迹象表明，这一计划模式是有希望的。三项措施之一，即枪击和凶杀案逮捕率，下降了 65%（经过多重测试调整后，p = 0.13）。由于枪击事件成本高昂，READI 预计每位参与者可节省 182,000 美元至 916,000 美元的社会成本 (p = 0.03)，这意味着效益成本比在 4:1 至 20:1 之间。此外，由外展工作人员（预先指定的亚组）转介的参与者显示，枪击和凶杀事件的逮捕和受害人数均大幅下降（分别为 79％ 和 43％），即使经过多次测试调整，这一数字仍然具有统计显着性。这些下降集中在预测风险较高的外展转介中，