This paper analyzes the dramatic rise in US inflation since 2020, which we decompose into a rise in core inflation as measured by the weighted median inflation rate and deviations of headline inflation from core. We explain the rise in core inflation with two factors: the tightening of the labor market as captured by the ratio of job vacancies to unemployment, and the pass-through into core inflation from past shocks to headline inflation. The headline shocks themselves are explained largely by increases in energy prices and by supply chain problems as captured by backlogs of orders for goods and services. Looking forward, we simulate the future path of inflation for alternative paths of the unemployment rate, focusing on the projections of Federal Reserve policymakers in which unemployment rises only modestly to 4.4 percent. We find that this unemployment path returns inflation to near the Federal Reserve's target only under optimistic assumptions about both inflation expectations and the Beveridge curve relating the unemployment and vacancy rates. Under less benign assumptions about these factors, the inflation rate remains well above target unless unemployment rises by more than the Federal Reserve projects.

本文分析了 2020 年以来美国通胀的急剧上升，我们将其分解为核心通胀的上升，以加权中值通胀率和总体通胀与核心的偏差来衡量。我们用两个因素来解释核心通胀的上升：劳动力市场的紧缩（以职位空缺与失业率的比率来衡量），以及从过去的冲击到总体通胀对核心通胀的传导。整体冲击本身主要是由能源价格上涨以及商品和服务订单积压所引发的供应链问题造成的。展望未来，我们模拟了失业率的替代路径的未来通胀路径，重点关注美联储政策制定者的预测，其中失业率仅小幅上升至 4.4%。我们发现，只有在对通胀预期以及与失业率和空缺率相关的贝弗里奇曲线做出乐观假设的情况下，这种失业路径才会使通胀回到接近美联储目标的水平。在对这些因素不太乐观的假设下，除非失业率上升幅度超过美联储的预期，否则通胀率仍远高于目标。