Female genital mutilation (FGM) is a harmful practice rooted in gender inequality. Its elimination is part of national and international agendas including the Sustainable Development Goals of the United Nations. Understanding its geographical evolution is crucial for targeted programming. However, due to sparse data, it is challenging to establish international comparability and statistical reliability. Data on FGM is observed at different points in time and periodicity across countries and in contexts with varying age-risk patterns, all of which can be a source of inaccurate and biased estimates. We perform an exemplary analysis, drawing on survival and complex survey analysis in Ethiopia, Kenya, and Somalia. This novel approach addresses measurement challenges specific to FGM data and produces an internationally comparable indicator—the probability of not experiencing FGM by age 20. We pinpoint the onset of statistically significant FGM decline at the subnational level from cohorts born in the 1970s until the 1990s. In the same period, we observe no decline in FGM risk across regions clustered around international borders and increasing subnational inequalities within countries. Our methods thus provide crucial insights into the geographical pattern of temporal trends in FGM risk.

中文翻译：

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女性生殖器切割风险时间趋势的空间聚集：利用埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和索马里的稀疏数据

女性生殖器切割（FGM）是一种源于性别不平等的有害做法。消除它是包括联合国可持续发展目标在内的国家和国际议程的一部分。了解其地理演变对于有针对性的规划至关重要。然而，由于数据稀疏，建立国际可比性和统计可靠性具有挑战性。关于女性生殖器切割的数据是在不同国家、不同年龄风险模式的不同时间点和周期观察到的，所有这些都可能成为不准确和有偏见的估计的来源。我们利用埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和索马里的生存和复杂调查分析进行了示范性分析。这种新颖的方法解决了女性生殖器切割数据特有的测量挑战，并产生了一个具有国际可比性的指标——20 岁之前没有经历过女性生殖器切割的概率。我们查明了从 20 世纪 70 年代到 1990 年代出生的人群中，在次国家层面上女性生殖器切割发生统计显着下降的情况。同一时期，我们观察到国际边界周围地区的女性生殖器切割风险并没有下降，国家内部的地方不平等现象却在加剧。因此，我们的方法为女性生殖器切割风险时间趋势的地理模式提供了重要的见解。