<br>不同的去库存策略对干旱牧场恢复力的影响,Ecology and Evolution

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不同的去库存策略对干旱牧场恢复力的影响
Ecology and Evolution ( IF 2.3 ) Pub Date : 2023-05-29 , DOI: 10.1002/ece3.10102
Toyo Vignal _{1,

2} , Mara Baudena _{3,

4,

5} , Angeles Garcia Mayor ₅ , Jonathan A Sherratt ₁

Affiliation

世界上一半的牲畜生活在（半）干旱地区，那里很大一部分人依靠畜牧业生存。然而，过度放牧可能导致土地退化和随后的社会经济危机。干旱牧场的可持续管理需要适当的放养策略，并且在过去几十年中一直是激烈争论的主题。我们的目标是了解放养策略的变化如何影响干旱牧场的恢复力。我们通过一个由耦合微分方程组组成的简单数学模型来描述牧场动力学。在我们的模型中，牲畜密度仅受饲料供应量的限制，而饲料供应量本身又受到水资源供应量的限制。我们将旱地植被的典型过程建模为强烈的 Allee 效应，即使在没有食草动物的情况下，也会导致植被状态和退化状态之间的双稳态。我们分析研究了不同的放养密度和去库存适应性对系统对干旱影响的恢复能力的影响。通过使用动态系统理论，我们研究了去库存策略的变化如何影响不同的弹性指标。我们发现：（1）增加饲养密度会降低弹性，从而导致生产率和弹性之间出现预期的权衡。 (2) 存在最大可持续牲畜密度，超过该密度系统只能退化。这种承载能力是所有策略所共有的。（3）去库存率对可用草料的适应性越高，系统的弹性就越强：系统的适应性越强，在不影响长期生产力水平的情况下，它可以从更大的植被损失中恢复。前两个结果强调需要采取适当的干旱牧场管理策略，以防止因盈利能力和可持续性之间的冲突而导致退化。第三点为这种策略提供了理论建议。

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Impact of different destocking strategies on the resilience of dry rangelands

Half of the world's livestock live in (semi-)arid regions, where a large proportion of people rely on animal husbandry for their survival. However, overgrazing can lead to land degradation and subsequent socio-economic crises. Sustainable management of dry rangeland requires suitable stocking strategies and has been the subject of intense debate in the last decades. Our goal is to understand how variations in stocking strategies affect the resilience of dry rangelands. We describe rangeland dynamics through a simple mathematical model consisting of a system of coupled differential equations. In our model, livestock density is limited only by forage availability, which is itself limited by water availability. We model processes typical of dryland vegetation as a strong Allee effect, leading to bistability between a vegetated and a degraded state, even in the absence of herbivores. We study analytically the impact of varying the stocking density and the destocking adaptivity on the resilience of the system to the effects of drought. By using dynamical systems theory, we look at how different measures of resilience are affected by variations in destocking strategies. We find that the following: (1) Increasing stocking density decreases resilience, giving rise to an expected trade-off between productivity and resilience. (2) There exists a maximal sustainable livestock density above which the system can only be degraded. This carrying capacity is common to all strategies. (3) Higher adaptivity of the destocking rate to available forage makes the system more resilient: the more adaptive a system is, the bigger the losses of vegetation it can recover from, without affecting the long-term level of productivity. The first two results emphasize the need for suitable dry rangeland management strategies, to prevent degradation resulting from the conflict between profitability and sustainability. The third point offers a theoretical suggestion for such a strategy.

更新日期：2023-05-31

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