The current modification of species distribution ranges, as a response to a warmer climate, constitutes an interesting line of work and a recent challenge for biogeography. This study aimed to determine if the climatic conditions of southern Europe are adequate to host a typical African species, the House Bunting, which is registered regularly during the last years, still in low numbers. To this end, the distribution of the species in its native range was modelled, both in the present and in future climate scenarios, using its current breeding distribution areas and a set of environmental variables. The results showed that the southern half of the Iberian Peninsula exhibits high values of favourability to host this African species for the current climatic conditions. Furthermore, future forecasts indicated an increase in favourability for this area. The highly favourable areas we detected in the south of the Iberian Peninsula are already regularly receiving individuals of the species. These observations are very likely vagrant birds dispersing from recently colonised breeding areas in northern Morocco, which may indicate a continuous process of colonisation towards the north, as has occurred during the last decades in Northern Africa. We cannot anticipate when the House Bunting will establish on the European continent because colonisation processes are usually slow but, according to our results, we predict its establishment in the near future. We have also identified those areas hosting favourable conditions for the species in Europe. These areas are a potential focal point for the colonisation of this and other African birds if the climate continues to warm.

中文翻译：

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南欧的气候正变得有利于非洲鸟类：期待新物种的建立

作为对气候变暖的回应，当前物种分布范围的改变构成了一项有趣的工作，也是生物地理学最近面临的挑战。这项研究旨在确定南欧的气候条件是否足以容纳一种典型的非洲物种，即家鹀，该物种在过去几年中定期登记，但数量仍然很少。为此，利用当前的繁殖分布区域和一组环境变量，在当前和未来的气候情景下，对该物种在其原生范围内的分布进行了建模。结果表明，在当前的气候条件下，伊比利亚半岛的南半部对寄宿这种非洲物种具有很高的吸引力。此外，未来的预测表明该地区的受欢迎程度有所增加。我们在伊比利亚半岛南部发现的非常有利的地区已经定期接收该物种的个体。这些观察结果很可能是从摩洛哥北部最近殖民的繁殖区分散的流浪鸟类，这可能表明在北非的过去几十年中发生了向北方的持续殖民过程。我们无法预测彩旗家族何时会在欧洲大陆建立，因为殖民化过程通常很缓慢，但根据我们的结果，我们预测它会在不久的将来建立。我们还确定了那些为欧洲物种提供有利条件的地区。