The project portfolio of carbon capture system and power to gas (CP project) is considered to be a key technology combination for achieving carbon emission reduction and recycling in the future. However, due to a dearth of associated engineering practices and business activities, there is no widely used business model for the large-scale deployment of the CP technology portfolio. The design and evaluation of the business model is crucial for projects with a long industrial chain and complex relationships between stakeholders, such as CP projects. Based on carbon chain and energy flow, this paper analyzes the cooperation mode and profitability among stakeholders in the CP industry chain, selects three suitable business models, and establishes nonlinear optimization models under the three business models. By analyzing the key factors (e.g. carbon price) that can promote investment and have policy influence, the tipping points of the key factors and the cost of support policies are given. Results show that the vertical integration model has the greatest demonstration deployment potential since it has the best performance in terms of cooperation and profitability realization. However, required crucial factors in the CP projects vary from business models, policy makers need to take appropriate supporting measures prudently.