Economic change over the past 20 years has rendered many individuals and territories vulnerable, leading to greater interpersonal and interterritorial inequality. This rising inequality is seen as a root cause of populism. Yet, there is no comparative evidence as to whether this discontent is the consequence of localised interpersonal inequality or stagnant growth in ‘left-behind’ places. This article assesses the association between levels and changes in local GDP per capita and interpersonal inequality, and the rise of far-right populism in Europe and in the USA. The analysis—conducted at small region level for Europe and county level for the USA—shows that there are both similarities and differences in the factors connected to populist voting on both sides of the Atlantic. In the USA, neither interpersonal inequality nor economic decline can explain populist support on their own. However, these factors gain significance when considered together with the racial composition of the area. Counties with a large share of white population where economic growth has been stagnant and where inequalities have increased supported Donald Trump. Meanwhile, counties with a similar economic trajectory but with a higher share of minorities shunned populism. In Europe, the most significant factor behind the rise of far-right populism is economic decline. This effect is particularly large in areas with a high share of immigration.

中文翻译：

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留守与不平等的地方：人际不平等、经济衰退和美国和欧洲民粹主义的兴起

过去 20 年的经济变化使许多个人和地区变得脆弱，导致更大的人际和地区间不平等。这种日益加剧的不平等被视为民粹主义的根源。然而，没有比较证据表明这种不满是局部人际不平等或“留守”地区增长停滞的结果。本文评估了地方人均 GDP 水平和变化与人际不平等之间的关联，以及欧洲和美国极右翼民粹主义的兴起。分析——在欧洲的小区域层面和美国的县级层面进行——表明，大西洋两岸与民粹主义投票相关的因素既有相似之处，也有不同之处。在美国，人际不平等和经济衰退都不能单独解释民粹主义的支持。然而，当与该地区的种族构成一起考虑时，这些因素变得更加重要。经济增长停滞不前、不平等加剧的白人人口比例较高的县支持唐纳德特朗普。与此同时，经济轨迹相似但少数族裔比例较高的县避开了民粹主义。在欧洲，极右翼民粹主义兴起的最重要因素是经济衰退。这种影响在移民比例高的地区尤为明显。经济增长停滞不前、不平等加剧的白人人口比例较高的县支持唐纳德特朗普。与此同时，经济轨迹相似但少数族裔比例较高的县避开了民粹主义。在欧洲，极右翼民粹主义兴起的最重要因素是经济衰退。这种影响在移民比例高的地区尤为明显。经济增长停滞不前、不平等加剧的白人人口比例较高的县支持唐纳德特朗普。与此同时，经济轨迹相似但少数族裔比例较高的县避开了民粹主义。在欧洲，极右翼民粹主义兴起的最重要因素是经济衰退。这种影响在移民比例高的地区尤为明显。