The return of wolves to Swiss mountains and the damage they cause to sheep and goat herds in the region have raised concerns about a consequent wave of farm closures. In this paper, we examine the relationship between wolf attacks and the decline of Alpine summer farms, a specific high-altitude farm type. We collected farm structure data and monitoring data on wolf attacks between 2004 and 2021 and analysed them using a causal random forest method, enabling a detailed analysis of the relation between wolf attacks and the number of different types of Alpine summer farms at a regional level. The results show that the farming systems are unaffected by incidental and infrequent wolf attacks, but that a high number of wolf attacks in a region is related to faster decrease in number of grazing systems where sheep are most vulnerable to such attacks. In contrast, systems that allow for better herd protection tend to show an increase in areas with frequent wolf attacks.

中文翻译：

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狼对瑞士高山夏季农场放牧系统结构变化的贡献：来自因果随机森林的证据

狼群返回瑞士山区，并对该地区的绵羊和山羊群造成破坏，引发了人们对随之而来的农场关闭浪潮的担忧。在本文中，我们研究了狼袭击与高山夏季农场（一种特定的高海拔农场类型）衰退之间的关系。我们收集了2004年至2021年狼袭击的农场结构数据和监测数据，并采用因果随机森林方法进行分析，从而详细分析了狼袭击与区域层面不同类型高山夏季农场数量之间的关系。结果表明，农业系统不会受到偶发和不频繁的狼袭击的影响，但一个地区狼袭击的频繁与放牧系统数量的快速减少有关，而放牧系统是羊最容易受到此类袭击的地方。相比之下，能够更好地保护牛群的系统往往会增加狼群频繁袭击的地区。