Given the recent changes in the supply and demand of dairy products, many opportunities arise for exporting and importing countries. This paper examines determinants of dairy-product trade by applying the Poisson Pseudo-Maximum Likelihood (PPML) method to the gravity model using panel data on 49 exporting and 235 importing countries for the 17 years from 2000 to 2016. The gravity model is estimated using both interval data and dynamic analyses. The results show that domestic subsidies have a modest, but significant, impact on dairy-product trade across the models. For example, a 1% increase in subsidies leads to a roughly 0.02% increase in trade for an average country. Memberships in trade agreements, market size factors, and government institutions also positively affect dairy-product trade. However, tariffs are insignificant in the main model specification. Results from the lag-policy analysis show that the impact of subsidies disappears after the second year of distribution; whereas for the lead-policy analysis, results suggest at least 3 years of anticipatory effects on domestic subsidies.

中文翻译：

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乳制品贸易的决定因素：补贴重要吗？

鉴于近期乳制品供需的变化，为出口国和进口国带来了许多机会。本文利用 2000 年至 2016 年 17 年间 49 个出口国和 235 个进口国的面板数据，通过将泊松伪最大似然 (PPML​​) 方法应用于引力模型，研究了乳制品贸易的决定因素。引力模型的估算采用区间数据和动态分析。结果表明，国内补贴对各种模式的乳制品贸易影响虽小，但影响重大。例如，对于一个普通国家来说，补贴增加 1% 会导致贸易量增加约 0.02%。贸易协定成员资格、市场规模因素和政府机构也对乳制品贸易产生积极影响。然而，关税在主要型号规格中并不重要。滞后政策分析结果表明，补贴的影响在发放第二年后就消失了；而对于主导政策分析，结果表明对国内补贴至少有 3 年的预期影响。