Abstract

The statistical relation between the rate of increase in the number of sunspots at the initial phase of the growth curve (from 20th to 29th cycle months) and the cycle amplitude is considered on the basis of data on the 24 previous solar cycles. It has been concluded that the maximum smoothed number of sunspots for the 25th cycle must be equal to W_max(25) ≈ 206 in the case when the growth phase is monotonical and W_max(25) ≈ 160 in the case of its nonmonotonical character with a split top as in the 24th cycle. Both cases correspond to a moderate solar cycle obeying the Gnevyshev–Ohl rule. At such current cycle parameters, there are no signs of a coming deep secular cycle minimum in the middle of the 21st century.

中文翻译：

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太阳活动第 25 周期最大值的早期预测

摘要

根据前24个太阳周期的数据，考虑了增长曲线初始阶段（第20至第29个周期月）太阳黑子数量增加率与周期幅度之间的统计关系。得出的结论是，在生长阶段是单调的情况下，第 25 个周期的最大平滑太阳黑子数必须等于W _{max (25) ≈ 206，在其非单调特征的情况下，必须等于}W _max (25) ≈ 160与第 24 个循环中一样，具有开叉顶部。这两种情况都对应于遵守格涅维舍夫-奥尔规则的温和太阳周期。按照目前的周期参数，没有迹象表明 21 世纪中叶将出现深度长期周期最低点。