We elucidate mid-century climate change impacts on electricity demand accounting for endogenous adoption of residential air-conditioning (AC) in affluent, cooler countries in Europe, and in poorer, hotter states in India. By 2050, in a high-warming scenario (SSP585) AC prevalence grows twofold in Europe and fourfold in India, reaching around 40% in both regions. We document a mitigation-adaptation tradeoff: AC expansion reduces daily heat exposures by 150 million and 3.8 billion person degree-days (PDDs), but increases annual electricity demand by 34 TWh and 168 TWh in Europe and India, respectively (corresponding to 2% and 15% of today’s consumption). The increase in adoption and use of AC would result in an additional 130 MMTCO2, of which 120 MMTCO2 in India alone, if the additional electricity generated were produced with today’s power mix. The tradeoff varies geographically and across income groups: a one PDD reduction in heat exposure in Europe versus India necessitates five times more electricity (0.53 kWh vs 0.1 kWh) and two times more emissions (0.16 kgCO\(_2\) vs 0.09 kgCO\(_2\)), on average. The decomposition of demand drivers offers important insights on how such tradeoff can be moderated through policies promoting technology-based and behavioral-based adaptation strategies.

我们阐明了本世纪中叶气候变化对电力需求的影响，解释了欧洲富裕、凉爽的国家和印度较贫穷、炎热的邦内生采用住宅空调 (AC) 的原因。到 2050 年，在高温情景 (SSP585) 中，AC 患病率在欧洲增长两倍，在印度增长四倍，两个地区均达到 40% 左右。我们记录了一个缓解-适应权衡：AC 扩张减少了 1.5 亿和 38 亿人度日 (PDD) 的每日热暴露，但在欧洲和印度分别增加了 34 TWh 和 168 TWh 的年度电力需求（相当于 2%和今天消费量的 15%）。如果产生的额外电力是使用今天的电力组合产生的，那么交流电的采用和使用的增加将导致额外的 130 MMTCO2，其中仅印度就有 120 MMTCO2。\(_2\)对比 0.09 kgCO \(_2\)），平均而言。需求驱动因素的分解提供了关于如何通过促进基于技术和基于行为的适应策略的政策来调节这种权衡的重要见解。