ABSTRACT

While India and the United States’ relations on the strategic and political fronts improved during 2017–2020, trade relations between the two countries noticeably worsened. Ever since their relations began to improve in the 1990s, deep divisions have existed between the two on trade issues such as market access in goods and services, intellectual property rights, and industrial policy. Given the focus on their strategic relations, successive administrations sought to manage these economic differences without public escalation of conflicts. The Trump administration’s approach deviated from this practice. While it continued to use the multilateral trading system to resolve some conflicts, it also resorted to using public shaming, tariff escalations and withdrawal of concessions in its relations with India. Although the Modi administration’s trade policy was similarly nationalist, its response to US actions were cautious. Evidence from the Modi-Trump period (2017–2020) shows that while both nationalist leaders pursued protectionist policies, the power capabilities of the states they led and the level of mutual economic dependence shaped their actions, their choice of instruments, and their ability to compel change in the other’s policies.

摘要

2017 年至 2020 年期间，尽管印美两国在战略和政治方面的关系有所改善，但两国之间的贸易关系明显恶化。自 20 世纪 90 年代两国关系开始改善以来，两国在商品和服务市场准入、知识产权和产业政策等贸易问题上存在严重分歧。鉴于对两国战略关系的关注，历届政府都试图在不公开冲突升级的情况下管理这些经济差异。特朗普政府的做法背离了这种做法。它在继续利用多边贸易体制解决一些冲突的同时，在对印关系中也采取了公开羞辱、关税升级和退让等手段。尽管莫迪政府的贸易政策同样具有民族主义色彩，但对美国行动的反应却十分谨慎。莫迪-特朗普时期（2017 年至 2020 年）的证据表明，虽然两位民族主义领导人都奉行保护主义政策，但他们领导的国家的权力能力和相互经济依赖的程度影响了他们的行动、他们对工具的选择以及他们采取行动的能力。迫使对方改变政策。