Purpose of Review

This review (1) describes the intersecting literature on climate change adaptation (CCA) and uncertainty (N= 562), and (2) synthesizes the findings of empirical studies about decision-maker uncertainty (n = 97).

Recent Findings

Uncertainty can be a barrier to adaptation, yet it is most often studied in relation to the scientific process, while uncertainties in people’s decision-making and their impact on CCA are less studied.

Summary

Despite the predominance of scientific uncertainties (52%), we see an upward-trend in studies of decision-making uncertainty (24%), and in combining natural and social sciences approaches (24%). Multiple sources of uncertainty influence CCA decisions besides climate trends, and their saliency and people’s responses vary depending on the role/function of the decision-maker and the timeframe of the decision. Concerns involve situational uncertainties, response options, and their consequences. Decision-makers are more likely to incorporate uncertainties in their adaptation decisions than suppress them or delay action, although the response is sensitive to the type of information sought and timeframes.

中文翻译：

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不确定性与气候变化适应：研究方法和人们决策的系统回顾

审查目的

本综述 (1) 描述了有关气候变化适应 (CCA) 和不确定性 ( N = 562)的交叉文献，(2) 综合了有关决策者不确定性的实证研究结果 ( n = 97)。

最近的发现

不确定性可能成为适应的障碍，但它最常被研究与科学过程相关，而人们决策的不确定性及其对 CCA 的影响却很少被研究。

概括

尽管科学不确定性占主导地位（52%），但我们看到决策不确定性研究（24%）以及自然科学和社会科学方法相结合的研究（24%）呈上升趋势。除了气候趋势之外，不确定性的多种来源也会影响 CCA 的决策，其显着性和人们的反应会根据决策者的角色/职能和决策的时间框架而有所不同。担忧涉及形势的不确定性、应对方案及其后果。决策者更有可能将不确定性纳入其适应决策中，而不是压制它们或延迟行动，尽管响应对所寻求的信息类型和时间范围很敏感。