By exciting subtropical teleconnections, sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Tropical Atlantic (NTA) during boreal spring can trigger El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events in the following boreal winter, thereby providing a precursor for ENSO predictability. However, this NTA−ENSO connection is not stationary, and it varies considerably over multidecadal timescales, which cannot be directly explained by the Atlantic multidecadal oscillation or the global warming trend. Here we show that multidecadal changes in the NTA−ENSO connection are principally controlled by multidecadal variability associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). During the positive phase of the NAO, the amplification of the NTA impact on ENSO mainly arises from strengthening of the boreal spring mean precipitation over the equatorial Atlantic and enhancement of the persistence of NTA SST anomalies, which enhance the NTA influence by exciting stronger and more persistent subtropical teleconnections. Our findings show that multidecadal variability of the NAO is key to understanding the impacts of the NTA SST on the tropical Pacific Ocean.

通过令人兴奋的副热带遥相关，北方春季北热带大西洋（NTA）的海面温度（SST）异常可能会在接下来的北方冬季引发厄尔尼诺南方涛动（ENSO）事件，从而为ENSO的可预测性提供先兆。然而，这种NTA−ENSO联系并不是静止的，它在数十年时间尺度上变化很大，这不能用大西洋数十年振荡或全球变暖趋势直接解释。在这里，我们表明 NTA−ENSO 连接的数十年变化主要受与北大西洋涛动 (NAO) 相关的数十年变率控制。 NAO正位相期间，NTA对ENSO影响的放大主要是由于赤道大西洋北春季平均降水量的加强和NTA海温异常持续性的增强，从而增强了NTA的影响，激发了更强、更强烈的影响。持续的亚热带遥相关。我们的研究结果表明，NAO 的数十年变化是了解 NTA 海温对热带太平洋影响的关键。