What effect does state violence have on the cohesiveness and fragmentation of insurgent organizations? This article develops a theory of how state violence against civilians affects insurgent cohesion and fragmentation in civil war. It argues that the state-led collective targeting of an armed group's alleged civilian constituency increases the probability of insurgent fragmentation, defined as the process through which insurgent organizations split into distinct entities, each with its own social composition, goals, and leadership. This effect is driven by the interaction of several mechanisms at the individual, group, and organizational levels: state-led collective targeting enlarges the supply of fresh recruits, strengthens the bonds between immediate group members (interpersonal cohesion), and disrupts intra-organizational coordination, strategic unity, and institutional arrangements that underpin the commitment of individual fighters to the organization as a whole (ideological cohesion). The implications of this argument are empirically tested in an analysis of armed groups fighting against their governments between 1946 and 2008. The results suggest that campaigns of massive state violence directed against the civilian constituency of rebel groups increase the overall risk of insurgent fragmentation, a finding that has important implications for the duration and escalation of civil wars.

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一个人？国家暴力和叛乱凝聚

国家暴力对叛乱组织的凝聚力和分裂有什么影响？本文发展了一种理论，说明国家对平民的暴力如何影响内战中叛乱分子的凝聚力和分裂。它认为，国家主导的以武装团体所谓的平民选区为目标的集体目标增加了叛乱分裂的可能性，叛乱组织被定义为分裂成不同实体的过程，每个实体都有自己的社会构成、目标和领导层。这种影响是由个人、团体和组织层面的几种机制的相互作用驱动的：国家主导的集体目标扩大了新兵的供应，加强了直接团体成员之间的联系（人际凝聚力），并破坏了组织内部的协调, 战略统一和制度安排，支持个体战士对整个组织的承诺（意识形态凝聚力）。对 1946 年至 2008 年间与其政府作战的武装团体的分析对这一论点的影响进行了实证检验。结果表明，针对反叛团体的平民选区的大规模国家暴力运动增加了叛乱分子分裂的总体风险，一项发现这对内战的持续时间和升级具有重要影响。