The implications of dietary changes for the environment and for human health are well documented, but the impacts on the agricultural sector are less well researched. We fill this gap by specifying scenarios in which European consumers' diets approximate the EAT-Lancet dietary recommendations to varying degrees and estimate the effects on agricultural production, incomes and emissions using an agro-economic modelling framework. The combination of different models allows for a detailed assessment of consequences for the agricultural sector from the global through European NUTS2 level to the farm level at different time scales. Shifting European consumption towards the EAT-Lancet recommendations leads to decreasing production of animal-based products, while production of fruits and vegetables increases sharply. The results indicate that the agricultural sector could benefit from a dietary shift, though the results are mixed at country, regional and farm levels. In particular, countries and regions that are highly specialised in animal farming are likely to lose income—at least in the short run—while regions with higher shares of vegetable and fruit farms can expect income gains. In Germany, pig and poultry farms may experience losses of up to 34% of their income, whereas farms with a high share of vegetables could gain more than 30% in income. Our results have implications for the policies to assist these extensive structural adjustments in response to widespread dietary changes.

中文翻译：

---

从餐桌到农场：欧盟 27 国更可持续的饮食对农业部门的影响

饮食变化对环境和人类健康的影响已有充分记录，但对农业部门的影响却鲜有研究。我们通过指定欧洲消费者的饮食在不同程度上接近 EAT-Lancet 饮食建议的情景来填补这一空白，并使用农业经济模型框架估计对农业生产、收入和排放的影响。不同模型的结合可以详细评估不同时间尺度上从全球到欧洲 NUTS2 水平再到农场水平的农业部门后果。欧洲消费转向 EAT-Lancet 建议导致动物性产品产量减少，而水果和蔬菜产量急剧增加。结果表明，农业部门可以从饮食转变中受益，尽管国家、地区和农场层面的结果参差不齐。特别是，畜牧业高度专业化的国家和地区可能会损失收入（至少在短期内如此），而蔬菜和水果农场比例较高的地区则有望获得收入增长。在德国，养猪场和家禽养殖场可能会损失高达 34% 的收入，而蔬菜比例较高的农场可能会获得超过 30% 的收入。我们的研究结果对协助这些广泛的结构调整以应对广泛的饮食变化的政策具有影响。畜牧业高度专业化的国家和地区可能会损失收入（至少在短期内如此），而蔬菜和水果农场比例较高的地区则有望获得收入增长。在德国，养猪场和家禽养殖场可能会损失高达 34% 的收入，而蔬菜比例较高的农场可能会获得超过 30% 的收入。我们的研究结果对协助这些广泛的结构调整以应对广泛的饮食变化的政策具有影响。畜牧业高度专业化的国家和地区可能会损失收入（至少在短期内如此），而蔬菜和水果农场比例较高的地区则有望获得收入增长。在德国，养猪场和家禽养殖场可能会损失高达 34% 的收入，而蔬菜比例较高的农场可能会获得超过 30% 的收入。我们的研究结果对协助这些广泛的结构调整以应对广泛的饮食变化的政策具有影响。