This paper uses a structural time series model to explore U.S. commodity market convergence, efficiency, and intertemporal smoothing from 1750–1949. I find near-continuous convergence that is largely concentrated in the frontier, broad antebellum efficiency gains, and intertemporal smoothing from the 1880s onward among the most perishable goods. The results reveal new periods of integration across all three metrics and underscore the rapid rate of integration on the frontier.

中文翻译：

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探索 200 年的美国商品市场一体化：结构时间序列模型方法

本文使用结构时间序列模型来探索 1750 年至 1949 年美国商品市场的收敛、效率和跨期平滑。我发现从 1880 年代开始，在最易腐烂的商品中，近乎持续的趋同主要集中在前沿领域、广泛的战前效率提升和跨期平滑。结果揭示了所有三个指标的新整合期，并强调了前沿整合的快速速度。