Fertility intentions—intentions regarding whether and when to have children—predict reproductive health outcomes. Measuring fertility intentions is difficult, particularly during macrostructural shocks, for at least two reasons: (1) fertility intentions may be especially volatile during periods of uncertainty and (2) macrostructural shocks may constrain data collection. We propose a set of indicators that capture how a macrostructural shock directly alters fertility intentions, with a particular focus on the Coronavirus disease 2019 (Covid-19) pandemic. We advance the conceptualization and construct of fertility intentions measures in three ways. First, we demonstrate the value of direct questions about whether women attributed changes in fertility intentions to the pandemic. Second, we highlight the importance of a typology that delineates fertility postponement, advancement, foregoing, and indecision. Third, we demonstrate the importance of incorporating a granular time window within a two-year period to capture short-term changes to fertility intentions. We exemplify the value of our proposed measures using survey data from a probabilistic sample of women aged 18–34 in Pernambuco, Brazil. We discuss the self-reported change in intentions due to Covid in wave 1 as well as panel change across waves. We further ground our contributions by uncovering important variations by social origin and parity.

中文翻译：

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衡量危机时期的生育意愿：以 Covid-19 大流行期间的调查数据为例


生育意愿（关于是否以及何时生育孩子的意愿）可预测生殖健康结果。衡量生育意愿很困难，尤其是在宏观结构冲击期间，原因至少有两个：(1) 生育意愿在不确定时期可能特别不稳定；(2) 宏观结构冲击可能会限制数据收集。我们提出了一组指标来捕捉宏观结构冲击如何直接改变生育意愿，特别关注 2019 年冠状病毒病 (Covid-19) 大流行。我们从三个方面推进生育意愿指标的概念化和构建。首先，我们证明了直接询问女性是否将生育意愿的变化归因于大流行的价值。其次，我们强调描述生育推迟、提前、放弃和犹豫不决的类型的重要性。第三，我们证明了在两年期间纳入细粒度时间窗口以捕捉生育意愿的短期变化的重要性。我们使用巴西伯南布哥州 18-34 岁女性概率样本的调查数据来举例说明我们提出的措施的价值。我们讨论了第一波中由于新冠疫情而导致的自我报告的意图变化以及各波中的面板变化。我们通过发现社会出身和平等的重要差异来进一步奠定我们的贡献。