Abstract

Geopolitics, technology and international institutions are three major areas of great power competition. In the analysis of great power relations, both the balance of power theory and the hegemony theory rely on the assumption of diminishing returns and ignore the possibility of increasing returns. Increasing returns play an extensive role in geographical location, technological evolution and institutional change; accordingly, the increasing returns mechanism in great power relations is reflected in the geopolitical competition, technological competition and international institutional competition of great powers. The rational expectation that initial advantages will be transformed into long-term advantages through the mechanism of increasing returns drives great powers into competition whether they are rivals or allies. As specific mechanisms leading to increasing returns, coordination effects operate in geopolitical competition, technological competition and international institution competition; learning effects are found in technological competition and international institution competition; and adaptive expectations play a part in international institution competition. Various cases, ranging from the Anglo-Dutch rivalry over maritime hegemony in the 17th century to the current US-European competition over international investment arbitration regimes, show that great power competition derives from the logic of increasing returns.

摘要

地缘政治、科技和国际制度是大国竞争的三大领域。在大国关系分析中，均势论和霸权论都依赖于收益递减的假设，而忽略了收益递增的可能性。报酬递增在地理位置、技术演进和制度变迁中发挥着广泛的作用；相应地，大国关系中的收益递增机制体现在大国的地缘政治竞争、技术竞争和国际制度竞争中。初始优势通过收益递增机制转化为长期优势的理性预期，驱使大国展开竞争，无论是对手还是盟友。作为收益递增的具体机制，协调效应在地缘政治竞争、技术竞争和国际制度竞争中发挥作用；学习效应体现在技术竞争和国际制度竞争中；适应性期望在国际制度竞争中发挥作用。从17世纪的英荷海上霸权争夺，到现在的美欧国际投资仲裁制度争夺，种种案例都表明，大国竞争源于收益递增逻辑。学习效应体现在技术竞争和国际制度竞争中；适应性期望在国际制度竞争中发挥作用。从17世纪的英荷海上霸权争夺，到现在的美欧国际投资仲裁制度争夺，种种案例都表明，大国竞争源于收益递增逻辑。学习效应体现在技术竞争和国际制度竞争中；适应性期望在国际制度竞争中发挥作用。从17世纪的英荷海上霸权争夺，到现在的美欧国际投资仲裁制度争夺，种种案例都表明，大国竞争源于收益递增逻辑。