Through its potential to contribute to mass suffering, economic disruption, and social unrest, climate change poses a security threat to the constitutional identities of states (as democratic, autocratic, or hybrid regimes). This paper proposes a conceptual framework of mediated causality for climatic impacts on constitutional identity and engages in novel theory-building for one mediating vector of change: the post-fossil energy transition. Theories of the “oil curse” and of “carbon democracy” are compared and critiqued for their contributions to understanding the potential impacts of decarbonized energy systems on democracy. Two counterintuitive conclusions emerge. First, transitioning away from petroleum may not result in increased democratization, as the oil curse implies. Second, post-fossil energy systems are unlikely to become structurally decentralized, as advocates of “energy democracy” suppose, and may even need to remain centralized in order for popular mobilization around energy to help maintain or reinvigorate democratic rights.

中文翻译：

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气候变化、能源转型和宪法认同

气候变化可能导致大规模苦难、经济动荡和社会动荡，从而对国家的宪法身份（如民主、专制或混合政权）构成安全威胁。本文提出了气候对宪法身份影响的中介因果关系的概念框架，并为一个中介变化向量：后化石能源转型建立了新的理论。对“石油诅咒”和“碳民主”理论进行了比较和批评，以了解它们对理解脱碳能源系统对民主的潜在影响的贡献。出现了两个违反直觉的结论。首先，从石油转型可能不会像石油诅咒所暗示的那样导致民主化程度的提高。第二，