Abstract

This study presents the first sectorally disaggregated estimates of the industrial output growth for Turkey between World War I and II. These estimates indicate that at the aggregate level the existing official index overestimates the output growth. Secondly, the sectoral disaggregation shows that the industrial growth was balanced, as both textiles and food-processing branches, which comprised most of the value-added, grew significantly. Local industries expanded against the only modest gains in per capita consumption of manufactured goods and incomes. Output growth was positively correlated with higher initial import penetration and nominal protection rates, which implies that trade protectionism helped favorable relative prices induce domestic expansion. On the other hand, both import-competing and domestic-market-oriented sectors significantly expanded, which suggests that import repression and increasing domestic demand drove industrial growth.

摘要

本研究首次对土耳其在第一次世界大战和第二次世界大战期间的工业产出增长进行了部门分类估计。这些估计表明，在总体水平上，现有官方指数高估了产出增长。其次，部门分解显示工业增长是平衡的，因为占增加值大部分的纺织和食品加工部门都有显着增长。地方工业在制成品的人均消费和收入方面取得了微弱的增长。产出增长与较高的初始进口渗透率和名义保护率正相关，这意味着贸易保护主义有助于有利的相对价格引发国内扩张。另一方面，