ABSTRACT

Pakistan is the seventh largest contributor to world urban growth and exhibits high levels of urbanization. The recent 2017 Population Census results show a slowing of urban growth. We question whether this apparent slowdown reflects lowering of the rate of natural increase and migration, or is the result of a disconnect between the administrative definition of urban and actual reality. Alternative estimates presented here suggest that the 2017 Census may have underestimated urbanization by as much as 22.2 per cent, that is, the actual level of urbanization may be 44.5 per cent compared to 36.4 per cent reported in the census. We decompose the urban growth to assess the relative impact of natural increase, reclassification and migration and we utilize alternative methods of classification of urban areas to assess urbanization levels for Pakistan and its provinces. Continuing high levels of urban fertility and natural increase are the major contributors to urban growth. Internal migration is the next biggest contributor, however directions of movements may be changing. These findings have implications for the forthcoming 2022 census to improve the enumeration of urban areas and for urban planning to take advantage of the beneficial effects of building connectivity between small, medium, and large cities.

摘要

巴基斯坦是世界城市增长的第七大贡献者，城市化水平很高。最近的 2017 年人口普查结果显示城市增长放缓。我们质疑这种明显的放缓是否反映了自然增长率和移民率的下降，或者是城市的行政定义与实际情况脱节的结果。这里提供的替代估计表明，2017 年人口普查可能低估了城市化率高达 22.2%，也就是说，实际城市化水平可能为 44.5%，而人口普查报告的城市化率为 36.4%。我们分解城市增长来评估自然增长的相对影响，重新分类和迁移，我们利用城市地区分类的替代方法来评估巴基斯坦及其省份的城市化水平。持续高水平的城市生育率和自然增长是城市增长的主要推动力。内部移民是第二大贡献者，但流动方向可能正在发生变化。这些发现对于即将进行的 2022 年人口普查具有重要意义，以改善城市地区的统计，并有助于城市规划利用小、中、大城市之间建立互联互通的有利影响。