This paper illustrates how the Congressional Budget Office's (CBO's) July 2021 baseline budget projections would have differed if the agency had used two alternative economic scenarios. The high-sixth scenario is based on the average values of projections for several variables—including inflation and the growth of gross domestic product after removing the effects of inflation (real GDP)—from the six Blue Chip forecasters (about one-sixth of the total) with the highest average interest rate projections. The low-sixth scenario is based on the average values of projections for the same variables from the six Blue Chip forecasters with the lowest average interest rate projections. Using its simplified model of how macroeconomic changes would affect the federal budget, the CBO found that projected deficits would be $2.1 trillion larger from 2022 to 2031 under the high-sixth scenario (totaling $13.8 trillion) than under the low-sixth scenario ($11.7 trillion). Despite a greater amount of debt in dollar terms under the high-sixth scenario, federal debt held by the public as a percentage of GDP would total about 101 percent at the end of 2031 under both scenarios.

本文说明了如果国会预算办公室 (CBO) 使用两种替代经济情景，其 2021 年 7 月的基准预算预测会有何不同。高六分之一情景基于六个蓝筹预测者（约六分之一的总计）平均利率预测最高。低六种情况是基于六个蓝筹股相同变量的预测平均值平均利率预测最低的预测者。CBO 使用其宏观经济变化如何影响联邦预算的简化模型发现，在高第六情景（总计 13.8 万亿美元）下，从 2022 年到 2031 年的预计赤字将比低第六情景（11.7 万亿美元）大 2.1 万亿美元). 尽管在高六种情景下以美元计价的债务数量更多，但在这两种情景下，到 2031 年底，公众持有的联邦债务占 GDP 的百分比将达到 101% 左右。