This is an update of a paper that we published with Karl E. Case in Brookings Papers on Economic Activity in 2012. The paper analyzes data from our annual questionnaire survey of US home buyers to understand their expectations for future home price changes. We again see a period of rapid price increase as we did in our surveys a decade ago. We find that home buyers were generally well informed, and their short-run expectations were conservative, typically underreacting to the year-to-year changes in actual home prices. Housing bubbles can be seen in their long-term (annualized ten-year) home price expectations. The long boom that preceded the 2007–2009 crisis was associated with changing public understanding of speculative bubbles. During the early years of this decade-long rebound, both short- and long-term expectations were out of line with actual changes in prices. Since 2013, long-term expectations have converged with short-term expectations and actual price changes in most locations, and all three series have moved in synch. With the onset of COVID-19, in 2021 actual and anticipated appreciation diverged once again. This time, however, short-term expectations surged above long-term expectations but remained far below actual appreciation rates. Buyers presumed a coming slowdown in the market that has yet to materialize.

这是我们与 Karl E. Case 在布鲁金斯经济活动论文中发表的一篇论文的更新2012 年。本文分析了我们对美国购房者的年度问卷调查数据，以了解他们对未来房价变化的预期。我们再次看到价格快速上涨的时期，就像我们在十年前的调查中所做的那样。我们发现，购房者通常消息灵通，他们的短期预期较为保守，通常对实际房价的逐年变化反应不足。从他们对长期（年化十年）房价的预期中可以看出房地产泡沫。2007-2009 年危机之前的长期繁荣与公众对投机泡沫的理解不断变化有关。在长达十年的反弹的最初几年，短期和长期预期都与价格的实际变化不符。自2013年以来，大多数地区的长期预期与短期预期和实际价格变化趋于一致，所有三个系列都同步移动。随着 COVID-19 的爆发，2021 年实际升值与预期升值再次出现分歧。然而，这一次，短期预期飙升至长期预期之上，但仍远低于实际升值率。买家认为市场即将放缓，但尚未成为现实。