We study the impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) on mortality and economic activity across U.S. cities during the 1918 Flu Pandemic. The combination of fast and stringent NPIs reduced peak mortality by 50 percent and cumulative excess mortality by 24 to 34 percent. However, while the pandemic itself was associated with short-run economic disruptions, we find that these disruptions were similar across cities with strict and lenient NPIs. NPIs also did not worsen medium-run economic outcomes. Our findings indicate that NPIs can reduce disease transmission without further depressing economic activity, a finding also reflected in discussions in contemporary newspapers.

中文翻译：

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大流行病抑制经济，公共卫生干预不会：1918 年流感的证据

我们研究了 1918 年流感大流行期间非药物干预 (NPI) 对美国各城市死亡率和经济活动的影响。结合使用快速和严格的 NPI，峰值死亡率降低了 50%，累计超额死亡率降低了 24% 至 34%。然而，虽然大流行本身与短期经济中断有关，但我们发现这些中断在具有严格和宽松 NPI 的城市中是相似的。非营利机构也没有恶化中期经济结果。我们的研究结果表明，非营利机构可以在不进一步抑制经济活动的情况下减少疾病传播，这一发现也反映在当代报纸的讨论中。