Biological invasions represent a major threat for biodiversity and agriculture. Despite efforts to restrict the spread of alien species, preventing their introduction remains the best strategy for an efficient control. In that context preparedness of phytosanitary authorities is very important and estimating the geographical range of alien species becomes a key information. The present study investigates the potential geographical range of the glassy-winged sharpshooter (Homalodisca vitripennis), a very efficient insect vector of Xylella fastidiosa, one of the most dangerous plant-pathogenic bacteria worldwide. We use species distribution modeling (SDM) to analyse the climate factors driving the insect distribution and we evaluate its potential distribution in its native range (USA) and in Europe according to current climate and different scenarios of climate change: 6 General Circulation Models (GCM), 4 shared socioeconomic pathways of gas emission and 4 time periods (2030, 2050, 2070, 2090). The first result is that the climate conditions of the European continent are suitable to the glassy-winged sharpshooter, in particular around the Mediterranean basin where X. fastidiosa is present. Projections according to future climate conditions indicate displacement of climatically suitable areas towards the north in both North America and Europe. Globally, suitable areas will decrease in North America and increase in Europe in the coming decades. SDM outputs vary according to the GCM considered and this variability indicated areas of uncertainty in the species potential range. Both potential distribution and its uncertainty associated to future climate projections are important information for improved preparedness of phytosanitary authorities.

生物入侵是对生物多样性和农业的主要威胁。尽管努力限制外来物种的传播，但防止它们的引入仍然是有效控制的最佳策略。在这种情况下，植物检疫当局的准备工作非常重要，估计外来物种的地理范围成为关键信息。本研究调查了玻璃翅神枪手 ( Homalodisca vitripennis ) 的潜在地理范围，这是一种非常有效的苛养木杆菌昆虫载体，世界上最危险的植物病原菌之一。我们使用物种分布模型 (SDM) 来分析驱动昆虫分布的气候因素，并根据当前气候和不同的气候变化情景评估其在原产地（美国）和欧洲的潜在分布：6 个大气环流模型 (GCM) ), 4 个共享的气体排放社会经济路径和 4 个时间段 (2030, 2050, 2070, 2090)。第一个结果是欧洲大陆的气候条件适合玻璃翅神枪手，特别是X. fastidiosa所在的地中海盆地周围存在。根据未来气候条件进行的预测表明，北美和欧洲的气候适宜地区将向北移动。在全球范围内，未来几十年，北美的适宜地区将减少，而欧洲将增加。SDM 输出根据所考虑的 GCM 而变化，这种变化表明物种潜力范围内的不确定区域。潜在分布及其与未来气候预测相关的不确定性都是改进植物检疫当局准备工作的重要信息。