Given the turbulent conditions of the early 21st century and the release of data from the 2020 Census, it is an appropriate time to examine contemporary population redistribution trends in nonmetropolitan America. Analysis centers on the major demographic components of population change: migration; and natural increase. The analysis demonstrates that the turbulent economic, social, and now epidemiological conditions of recent years altered traditional demographic trends in nonmetropolitan America. For the first time in history, nonmetropolitan America lost population between 2010 and 2020 because of shifts in migration trends and diminishing natural increase. In contrast, post-censal population estimates suggest that nonmetropolitan population gains exceeded those in metropolitan areas for the first time in 50 years between 2020 and 2021. The recent widespread nonmetropolitan population increases are the result of substantial net migration gains that offset the growing natural decrease fostered by COVID-19. Sustained net migration gains in nonmetro areas provides a demographic lifeline to many counties that would otherwise face depopulation because of accelerating natural decrease. Whether these migration patterns can be sustained remains to be seen.

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2010 年至 2021 年美国非大都市的人口再分配趋势☆

鉴于 21 世纪初的动荡局势和 2020 年人口普查数据的发布，现在是研究非大都市美国当代人口再分配趋势的适当时机。分析集中在人口变化的主要人口组成部分：移民；并自然增加。分析表明，近年来动荡的经济、社会和流行病学状况改变了美国非大都市的传统人口趋势。2010 年至 2020 年间，由于移民趋势的转变和自然增长的减少，非大都市美国的人口在历史上首次减少。相比之下，人口普查后的人口估计表明，在 2020 年至 2021 年之间，非大都市人口增长 50 年来首次超过大都市地区。最近广泛的非大都市人口增长是大量净移民收益的结果，抵消了 COVID-19 导致的日益增长的自然减少。非都市区持续的净移民收益为许多县提供了人口生命线，否则这些县将因自然减少加速而面临人口减少。这些迁移模式能否持续还有待观察。